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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2016 2015 2014 Yrs Career Needed
1 Alex Rodriguez* NYY DH 40 100.0% 15.5 9 33 1.5 696 0
2 Albert Pujols* LAA DH 36 100.0% 33.5 31 40 28 2.1 591 0
3 David Ortiz* BOS DH 40 100.0% 37.2 38 37 35 1.5 541 0
4 Miguel Cabrera DET 1B 33 94.5% 29.2 38 18 25 4.1 446 54
5 Mike Trout LAA CF 24 43.2% 34.2 29 41 36 9.1 168 332
6 Chris Davis BAL 1B 30 37.7% 39.0 38 47 26 5.8 241 259
7 Nolan Arenado COL 3B 25 35.5% 37.5 41 42 18 8.9 111 389
8 Edwin Encarnacion TOR DH 33 31.7% 39.7 42 39 34 3.9 310 190
9 Giancarlo Stanton MIA RF 26 28.7% 28.7 27 27 37 8.0 208 292
10 Manny Machado BAL 3B 23 28.2% 32.2 37 35 12 9.6 105 395
11 Adrian Beltre TEX 3B 37 25.9% 25.2 32 18 19 1.7 445 55
12 Bryce Harper WAS RF 23 22.7% 28.2 24 42 13 9.8 121 379
13 Jay Bruce CIN/NYM RF 29 20.2% 28.2 33 26 18 6.5 241 259
14 Justin Upton DET LF 28 19.5% 29.0 31 26 29 6.7 221 279
15 Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B 26 18.0% 31.7 32 31 32 7.9 134 366
16 Mark Trumbo BAL RF 30 12.7% 35.3 47 22 14 5.7 178 322
17 Kris Bryant CHC 3B 24 12.6% 29.3 39 26 9.3 65 435
18 Chris Carter MIL 1B 29 12.2% 34.7 41 24 37 6.3 150 350
19 Evan Longoria TBR 3B 30 11.5% 28.7 36 21 22 5.6 241 259
20 Todd Frazier CHW 3B 30 9.8% 36.5 40 35 29 5.8 148 352
21 Rougned Odor TEX 2B 22 9.1% 24.8 33 16 9 10.6 58 442
22 Josh Donaldson TOR 3B 30 8.4% 37.0 37 41 29 5.7 141 359
23 Khris Davis OAK LF 28 8.2% 33.7 42 27 22 6.9 102 398
24 Brian Dozier MIN 2B 29 8.2% 34.2 42 28 23 6.5 117 383
25 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 26 6.9% 26.0 34 18 18 7.9 138 362
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