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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2011 2010 2009 Yrs Career Needed
1 CC Sabathia NYY SP 30 36.2% 19.7 19 21 19 5.4 176 124
2 Justin Verlander DET SP 28 26.6% 21.2 24 18 19 7.0 107 193
3 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 23 14.1% 16.2 21 13 8 10.0 47 253
4 Roy Halladay PHI SP 34 10.8% 19.3 19 21 17 3.5 188 112
5 Felix Hernandez SEA SP 25 9.8% 14.5 14 13 19 8.9 85 215
6 Jon Lester BOS SP 27 4.8% 16.3 15 19 15 7.5 76 224
7 Yovani Gallardo MIL SP 25 4.6% 15.3 17 14 13 8.8 53 247
8 Trevor Cahill OAK SP 23 2.6% 13.7 12 18 10 10.0 40 260
9 Rick Porcello DET SP 22 0.7% 12.7 14 10 14 10.5 38 262
10 Tim Wakefield BOS SP 44 0.0% 6.7 7 4 11 1.5 200 100
11 Tim Hudson ATL SP 35 0.0% 14.0 16 17 2 2.4 181 119
12 Livan Hernandez WAS SP 36 0.0% 8.8 8 10 9 2.2 174 126
13 Derek Lowe ATL SP 38 0.0% 12.3 9 16 15 1.5 166 134
14 Javier Vazquez FLA SP 34 0.0% 12.3 13 10 15 3.0 165 135
15 Kevin Millwood COL SP 36 0.0% 5.5 4 4 13 2.1 163 137
16 Mark Buehrle CHW SP 32 0.0% 13.0 13 13 13 4.6 161 139
17 Bartolo Colon NYY SP 38 0.0% 6.0 8 3 1.5 161 139
18 Roy Oswalt PHI SP 33 0.0% 10.2 9 13 8 3.7 159 141
19 Freddy Garcia NYY SP 34 0.0% 10.5 12 12 3 3.2 145 155
20 Barry Zito SFG SP 33 0.0% 6.2 3 9 10 4.1 145 155
21 Chris Carpenter STL SP 36 0.0% 13.7 11 16 17 2.3 144 156
22 Jon Garland LAD SP 31 0.0% 7.0 1 14 11 4.9 132 168
23 John Lackey BOS SP 32 0.0% 12.5 12 14 11 4.4 128 172
24 Randy Wolf MIL SP 34 0.0% 12.7 13 13 11 3.1 127 173
25 Josh Beckett BOS SP 31 0.0% 11.3 13 6 17 5.3 125 175
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