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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2004 2003 2002 Yrs Career Needed
1 Roger Clemens* HOU SP 41 100.0% 16.8 18 17 13 1.5 328 0
2 Greg Maddux* CHC SP 38 100.0% 16.0 16 16 16 1.5 305 0
3 Mark Buehrle CHW SP 25 10.6% 15.8 16 14 19 8.8 69 231
4 Mark Mulder OAK SP 26 9.8% 16.7 17 15 19 7.9 81 219
5 Pedro Martinez BOS SP 32 9.5% 16.0 16 14 20 4.4 182 118
6 Roy Oswalt HOU SP 26 5.0% 16.5 20 10 19 7.9 63 237
7 Johan Santana MIN SP 25 2.6% 15.3 20 12 8 8.8 43 257
8 Barry Zito OAK SP 26 1.1% 14.0 11 14 23 8.3 72 228
9 Russ Ortiz ATL SP 30 0.9% 16.8 15 21 14 6.0 103 197
10 Bartolo Colon ANA SP 31 0.8% 17.3 18 15 20 5.3 118 182
11 Tom Glavine* NYM SP 38 0.0% 11.5 11 9 18 1.5 262 38
12 Randy Johnson* ARI SP 40 0.0% 14.0 16 6 24 1.5 246 54
13 David Wells SDP SP 41 0.0% 14.2 12 15 19 1.5 212 88
14 Mike Mussina NYY SP 35 0.0% 14.7 12 17 18 2.7 211 89
15 Kevin Brown NYY SP 39 0.0% 10.2 10 14 3 1.5 207 93
16 Jamie Moyer SEA SP 41 0.0% 12.7 7 21 13 1.5 192 108
17 Curt Schilling BOS SP 37 0.0% 17.0 21 8 23 1.5 184 116
18 Kenny Rogers TEX SP 39 0.0% 15.5 18 13 13 1.5 176 124
19 Kevin Appier KCR SP 36 0.0% 5.0 0 8 14 2.1 169 131
20 John Smoltz ATL RP 37 0.0% 0.5 0 0 3 1.7 163 137
21 Al Leiter NYM SP 38 0.0% 12.2 10 15 13 1.5 155 145
22 Andy Pettitte HOU SP 32 0.0% 12.2 6 21 13 4.8 155 145
23 Scott Erickson NYM/TEX SP 36 0.0% 1.3 1 5 2.2 141 159
24 Mike Hampton ATL SP 31 0.0% 12.3 13 14 7 4.9 133 167
25 Pat Hentgen TOR SP 35 0.0% 3.3 2 7 0 2.6 131 169
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