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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1990 1989 1988 Yrs Career Needed
1 Darryl Strawberry NYM RF 28 48.1% 34.7 37 29 39 7.0 252 248
2 Mark McGwire* OAK 1B 26 32.8% 35.8 39 33 32 8.0 156 344
3 Jose Canseco OAK RF 25 28.2% 31.2 37 17 42 8.4 165 335
4 Fred McGriff TOR 1B 26 25.0% 35.2 35 36 34 8.0 125 375
5 Cecil Fielder DET 1B 26 22.6% 38.3 51 9 7.9 82 418
6 Kevin Mitchell SFG LF 28 18.9% 36.3 35 47 19 6.9 135 365
7 Eddie Murray* LAD 1B 34 18.2% 24.3 26 20 28 3.4 379 121
8 Dale Murphy ATL/PHI RF 34 13.5% 22.7 24 20 24 3.4 378 122
9 Eric Davis CIN CF 28 9.2% 27.7 24 34 26 7.1 166 334
10 Barry Bonds* PIT LF 25 9.1% 26.8 33 19 24 8.4 117 383
11 Ryne Sandberg CHC 2B 30 7.1% 33.2 40 30 19 5.5 179 321
12 Bo Jackson KCR CF 27 4.9% 28.8 28 32 25 7.4 109 391
13 Bobby Bonilla PIT RF 27 2.9% 28.0 32 24 24 7.6 98 402
14 Matt Williams SFG 3B 24 2.9% 24.8 33 18 8 9.2 67 433
15 Glenn Davis HOU 1B 29 2.7% 27.3 22 34 30 6.4 166 334
16 Ruben Sierra TEX RF 24 1.0% 21.5 16 29 23 9.2 114 386
17 Howard Johnson NYM 3B 29 0.4% 27.5 23 36 24 6.2 159 341
18 Joe Carter SDP CF 30 0.4% 28.2 24 35 27 5.8 175 325
19 Kent Hrbek MIN 1B 30 0.3% 23.5 22 25 25 5.9 223 277
20 Dwight Evans BOS DH 38 0.0% 16.7 13 20 21 1.5 379 121
21 Dave Winfield NYY/CAL RF 38 0.0% 15.8 21 25 1.5 378 122
22 Carlton Fisk CHW C 42 0.0% 16.5 18 13 19 1.5 354 146
23 Andre Dawson CHC RF 35 0.0% 24.5 27 21 24 2.4 346 154
24 Dave Parker MIL DH 39 0.0% 19.8 21 22 12 1.5 328 172
25 Gary Carter SFG C 36 0.0% 7.0 9 2 11 2.3 313 187
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