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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1983 1982 1981 Yrs Career Needed
1 Reggie Jackson* CAL DH 37 97.1% 22.5 14 39 15 1.7 478 22
2 Mike Schmidt* PHI 3B 33 74.3% 36.8 40 35 31 3.7 389 111
3 Jim Rice BOS LF 30 28.7% 30.3 39 24 17 5.8 276 224
4 Eddie Murray* BAL 1B 27 27.5% 30.8 33 32 22 7.6 198 302
5 Dale Murphy ATL CF 27 22.9% 32.2 36 36 13 7.6 164 336
6 Bob Horner ATL 3B 25 7.3% 23.2 20 32 15 8.5 158 342
7 Dave Winfield NYY LF 31 7.2% 30.5 32 37 13 5.0 236 264
8 Greg Luzinski CHW DH 32 4.9% 25.5 32 18 21 4.4 294 206
9 Andre Dawson MON CF 28 4.6% 27.7 32 23 24 6.6 165 335
10 Lance Parrish DET C 27 4.1% 25.8 27 32 10 7.8 129 371
11 Pedro Guerrero LAD 3B 27 3.9% 28.7 32 32 12 7.8 85 415
12 Cal Ripken BAL SS 22 2.8% 22.8 27 28 0 10.3 55 445
13 Tony Armas BOS CF 29 2.7% 31.0 36 28 22 6.0 147 353
14 Carl Yastrzemski BOS DH 43 0.0% 11.5 10 16 7 1.5 452 48
15 Johnny Bench CIN 3B 35 0.0% 11.7 12 13 8 2.7 389 111
16 Tony Perez PHI 1B 41 0.0% 6.5 6 6 9 1.5 369 131
17 Dave Kingman NYM 1B 34 0.0% 22.5 13 37 22 3.3 342 158
18 Graig Nettles NYY 3B 38 0.0% 18.5 20 18 15 1.5 333 167
19 Rusty Staub NYM 1B 39 0.0% 3.3 3 3 5 1.5 290 210
20 George Foster NYM LF 34 0.0% 22.0 28 13 22 3.3 289 211
21 Darrell Evans SFG 1B 36 0.0% 22.5 30 16 12 2.3 262 238
22 Joe Morgan PHI 2B 39 0.0% 14.0 16 14 8 1.5 262 238
23 Ron Cey CHC 3B 35 0.0% 22.2 24 24 13 2.8 252 248
24 Bobby Murcer NYY DH 37 0.0% 3.8 1 7 6 1.7 252 248
25 Rick Monday LAD RF 37 0.0% 8.5 6 11 11 1.5 240 260
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