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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1960 1959 1958 Yrs Career Needed
1 Warren Spahn* MIL SP 39 98.3% 21.2 21 21 22 1.5 288 12
2 Early Wynn* CHW SP 40 97.0% 16.2 13 22 14 1.5 284 16
3 Robin Roberts PHI SP 33 27.4% 13.8 12 15 17 3.7 233 67
4 Don Drysdale LAD SP 23 12.5% 15.2 15 17 12 9.6 66 234
5 Milt Pappas BAL SP 21 11.7% 14.2 15 15 10 11.3 40 260
6 Mike McCormick SFG SP 21 6.4% 13.3 15 12 11 10.9 41 259
7 Glen Hobbie CHC SP 24 5.2% 15.0 16 16 10 9.5 42 258
8 Vern Law PIT SP 30 3.9% 18.3 20 18 14 5.8 102 198
9 Bob Friend PIT SP 29 3.4% 15.3 18 8 22 6.2 121 179
10 Ernie Broglio STL SP 24 2.6% 15.8 21 7 9.1 28 272
11 Chuck Estrada BAL SP 22 0.6% 13.5 18 10.6 18 282
12 Billy Pierce CHW SP 33 0.0% 14.5 14 14 17 4.1 179 121
13 Don Newcombe CIN/CLE SP 34 0.0% 8.5 6 13 7 3.6 149 151
14 Lew Burdette MIL SP 33 0.0% 19.8 19 21 20 3.8 145 155
15 Mike Garcia CHW RP 36 0.0% 1.2 0 3 1 2.0 142 158
16 Whitey Ford NYY SP 31 0.0% 13.7 12 16 14 5.0 133 167
17 Gerry Staley CHW RP 39 0.0% 9.8 13 8 4 1.5 132 168
18 Ned Garver KCA SP 34 0.0% 7.3 4 10 12 3.3 129 171
19 Bob Rush MIL/CHW RP 34 0.0% 4.3 2 5 10 3.3 127 173
20 Johnny Antonelli SFG SP 30 0.0% 12.0 6 19 16 5.9 125 175
21 Curt Simmons PHI/STL SP 31 0.0% 5.3 7 0 7 5.3 122 178
22 Harvey Haddix PIT SP 34 0.0% 10.8 11 12 8 3.1 106 194
23 Chuck Stobbs WAS SP 30 0.0% 9.0 12 1 3 5.4 105 195
24 Bob Buhl MIL SP 31 0.0% 13.8 16 15 5 4.9 100 200
25 Bobby Shantz NYY RP 34 0.0% 6.0 5 7 7 3.1 99 201
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