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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1950 1949 1948 Yrs Career Needed
1 Hal Newhouser DET SP 29 46.6% 17.0 15 18 21 6.5 185 115
2 Bob Feller CLE SP 31 38.0% 16.2 16 15 19 5.0 208 92
3 Bob Lemon CLE SP 29 11.8% 22.2 23 22 20 6.1 80 220
4 Robin Roberts PHI SP 23 11.1% 16.2 20 15 7 9.7 42 258
5 Warren Spahn* BSN SP 29 10.6% 20.0 21 21 15 6.5 86 214
6 Mel Parnell BOS SP 28 9.3% 19.8 18 25 15 7.2 60 240
7 Art Houtteman DET SP 22 9.2% 14.8 19 15 2 10.3 43 257
8 Don Newcombe BRO SP 24 5.0% 15.2 19 17 9.6 36 264
9 Curt Simmons PHI SP 21 3.3% 12.8 17 4 7 11.3 29 271
10 Howie Pollet STL SP 29 1.4% 15.8 14 20 13 6.6 97 203
11 Bucky Walters BSN RP 41 0.0% 0.0 0 0 1.5 198 102
12 Dutch Leonard CHC RP 41 0.0% 6.8 5 7 12 1.5 177 123
13 Dizzy Trout DET SP 35 0.0% 9.8 13 3 10 3.0 151 149
14 Harry Gumbert PIT RP 40 0.0% 3.3 0 5 10 1.5 143 157
15 Allie Reynolds NYY SP 33 0.0% 16.3 16 17 16 4.0 119 181
16 Johnny Vander Meer CHC RP 35 0.0% 6.0 3 5 17 2.6 119 181
17 Kirby Higbe NYG RP 35 0.0% 2.0 0 2 8 2.9 118 182
18 Harry Brecheen STL SP 35 0.0% 12.0 8 14 20 2.6 113 187
19 Joe Dobson BOS SP 33 0.0% 14.8 15 14 16 3.9 111 189
20 Hank Borowy 3 Tms RP 34 0.0% 5.8 2 12 5 3.5 106 194
21 Early Wynn* CLE SP 30 0.0% 14.0 18 11 8 5.7 101 199
22 Eddie Lopat NYY SP 32 0.0% 16.8 18 15 17 4.8 100 200
23 Johnny Sain BSN SP 32 0.0% 17.3 20 10 24 4.3 99 201
24 Al Benton CLE RP 39 0.0% 5.3 4 9 2 1.5 94 206
25 Jack Kramer NYG SP 32 0.0% 6.5 3 6 18 4.5 94 206
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