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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1947 1946 1945 Yrs Career Needed
1 Hal Newhouser DET SP 26 55.2% 21.3 17 26 25 8.3 131 169
2 Bob Feller CLE SP 28 43.5% 19.5 20 26 5 6.8 158 142
3 Ralph Branca BRO SP 21 14.6% 15.8 21 3 5 11.1 29 271
4 Dave Ferriss BOS SP 25 13.8% 17.8 12 25 21 8.7 58 242
5 Ewell Blackwell CIN SP 24 6.4% 16.5 22 9 9.2 31 269
6 Red Ruffing CHW SP 42 0.0% 4.3 3 5 7 1.5 273 27
7 Mel Harder CLE SP 37 0.0% 5.2 6 5 3 1.5 223 77
8 Bobo Newsom WAS/NYY SP 39 0.0% 11.5 11 14 8 1.5 205 95
9 Bucky Walters CIN SP 38 0.0% 9.0 8 10 10 1.5 198 102
10 Bill Lee CHC RP 37 0.0% 4.8 0 10 9 1.5 169 131
11 Claude Passeau CHC RP 38 0.0% 6.8 2 9 17 1.5 162 138
12 Dutch Leonard PHI SP 38 0.0% 14.7 17 10 17 1.5 153 147
13 Dizzy Dean SLB SP 37 0.0% 0.0 0 1.5 150 150
14 Schoolboy Rowe PHI SP 37 0.0% 10.7 14 11 1.5 145 155
15 Mort Cooper BSN/NYG SP 34 0.0% 7.3 3 13 9 3.4 128 172
16 Harry Gumbert CIN RP 37 0.0% 7.5 10 6 1.5 128 172
17 Dizzy Trout DET SP 32 0.0% 13.7 10 17 18 4.8 125 175
18 Rip Sewell PIT SP 40 0.0% 7.5 6 8 11 1.5 124 176
19 Thornton Lee CHW SP 40 0.0% 4.7 3 2 15 1.5 116 184
20 Spud Chandler NYY SP 39 0.0% 11.5 9 20 2 1.5 109 191
21 Kirby Higbe BRO/PIT SP 32 0.0% 12.2 13 17 4.7 108 192
22 Bill Dietrich PHA SP 37 0.0% 4.7 5 3 7 1.6 107 193
23 Fritz Ostermueller PIT SP 39 0.0% 11.2 12 13 5 1.5 106 194
24 Denny Galehouse SLB/BOS SP 35 0.0% 9.0 12 8 2.7 101 199
25 Si Johnson BSN SP 40 0.0% 5.0 6 6 1.5 101 199
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