Choose Metric:

Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1943 1942 1941 Yrs Career Needed
1 Mel Ott* NYG RF 34 95.3% 23.5 18 30 27 3.4 463 37
2 Charlie Keller NYY LF 26 12.2% 29.7 31 26 33 7.9 122 378
3 Rudy York DET 1B 29 8.3% 28.5 34 21 27 6.1 203 297
4 Al Simmons BOS LF 41 0.0% 0.8 1 0 1.5 307 193
5 Chuck Klein PHI LF 38 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 1.5 300 200
6 Bob Johnson WAS LF 37 0.0% 11.5 7 13 22 1.5 259 241
7 Dolph Camilli BRO 1B 36 0.0% 17.3 6 26 34 2.3 237 263
8 Bill Dickey NYY C 36 0.0% 3.8 4 2 7 2.4 200 300
9 Joe Medwick BRO/NYG LF 31 0.0% 6.8 5 4 18 5.0 189 311
10 Harlond Clift SLB/WAS 3B 30 0.0% 6.7 3 7 17 5.5 170 330
11 Joe Cronin BOS 3B 36 0.0% 6.5 5 4 16 2.0 165 335
12 Ernie Lombardi NYG C 35 0.0% 10.3 10 11 10 2.9 145 355
13 Joe Gordon NYY 2B 28 0.0% 18.5 17 18 24 7.0 142 358
14 Pinky Higgins DET 3B 34 0.0% 10.5 10 11 11 3.5 131 369
15 Joe Kuhel CHW 1B 37 0.0% 5.8 5 4 12 1.8 121 379
16 Gee Walker CIN CF 35 0.0% 4.2 3 5 6 2.8 117 383
17 Paul Waner BRO RF 40 0.0% 1.2 1 1 2 1.5 113 387
18 Bill Nicholson CHC RF 28 0.0% 25.8 29 21 26 6.9 106 394
19 Jeff Heath CLE LF 28 0.0% 16.3 18 10 24 7.1 102 398
20 Vince DiMaggio PIT CF 30 0.0% 16.0 15 15 21 5.5 97 403
21 Ival Goodman CHC LF 34 0.0% 2.3 3 0 1 3.0 94 406
22 Chet Laabs SLB LF 31 0.0% 20.0 17 27 15 5.3 94 406
23 Tony Cuccinello BSN/CHW 3B 35 0.0% 1.5 2 1 2.6 92 408
24 Frankie Hayes SLB C 28 0.0% 5.2 5 2 12 6.8 92 408
25 Arky Vaughan BRO SS 31 0.0% 4.2 5 2 6 5.2 91 409
Page: 1 , 2 , 3 ... 21