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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1937 1936 1935 Yrs Career Needed
1 Lou Gehrig NYY 1B 34 97.3% 39.8 37 49 30 3.6 464 36
2 Jimmie Foxx* BOS 1B 29 90.7% 37.7 36 41 36 6.2 379 121
3 Mel Ott* NYG RF 28 64.3% 31.7 31 33 31 7.0 306 194
4 Hal Trosky CLE 1B 24 37.0% 34.3 32 42 26 9.2 136 364
5 Joe DiMaggio NYY CF 22 34.8% 34.5 46 29 10.4 75 425
6 Hank Greenberg DET 1B 26 13.1% 30.0 40 1 36 8.1 115 385
7 Joe Medwick STL LF 25 6.1% 25.3 31 18 23 8.6 110 390
8 Rudy York DET C 23 4.6% 26.3 35 9.7 35 465
9 Rogers Hornsby SLB 2B 41 0.0% 0.8 1 0 0 1.5 301 199
10 Al Simmons WAS LF 35 0.0% 11.0 8 13 16 2.9 277 223
11 Chuck Klein PHI RF 32 0.0% 19.3 15 25 21 4.4 272 228
12 Goose Goslin DET LF 36 0.0% 11.5 4 24 9 2.0 246 254
13 Jim Bottomley SLB 1B 37 0.0% 4.7 1 12 1 1.7 219 281
14 Earl Averill CLE CF 35 0.0% 23.0 21 28 19 2.9 211 289
15 Wally Berger BSN/NYG CF 31 0.0% 22.5 17 25 34 5.0 211 289
16 Gabby Hartnett CHC C 36 0.0% 10.5 12 7 13 2.1 208 292
17 Babe Herman DET LF 34 0.0% 6.0 0 13 10 3.6 180 320
18 Tony Lazzeri NYY 2B 33 0.0% 13.8 14 14 13 3.9 169 331
19 Chick Hafey CIN CF 34 0.0% 6.8 9 1 3.4 164 336
20 Charlie Gehringer DET 2B 34 0.0% 15.2 14 15 19 3.5 134 366
21 Bob Johnson PHA LF 31 0.0% 25.5 25 25 28 5.0 133 367
22 Bill Dickey NYY C 30 0.0% 24.2 29 22 14 6.0 127 373
23 Kiki Cuyler CIN CF 38 0.0% 3.3 0 7 6 1.5 126 374
24 Ripper Collins CHC 1B 33 0.0% 16.2 16 13 23 4.0 122 378
25 Mickey Cochrane DET C 34 0.0% 2.5 2 2 5 3.5 119 381
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