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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1937 1936 1935 Yrs Career Needed
1 Wes Ferrell BOS/WAS SP 29 40.7% 17.8 14 20 25 6.4 175 125
2 Dizzy Dean STL SP 27 36.9% 19.2 13 24 28 7.5 134 166
3 Carl Hubbell NYG SP 34 28.0% 23.5 22 26 23 3.6 192 108
4 Red Ruffing NYY SP 32 21.0% 19.3 20 20 16 4.7 172 128
5 Lefty Gomez NYY SP 28 19.8% 16.8 21 13 12 6.8 135 165
6 Mel Harder CLE SP 27 18.9% 16.2 15 15 22 7.4 127 173
7 Lon Warneke STL SP 28 18.4% 17.7 18 16 20 7.0 118 182
8 Lefty Grove* BOS SP 37 15.5% 17.5 17 17 20 1.6 257 43
9 Larry French CHC SP 29 14.4% 16.8 16 18 17 6.2 138 162
10 Tommy Bridges DET SP 30 9.1% 18.7 15 23 21 5.7 120 180
11 Elden Auker DET SP 26 3.7% 15.8 17 13 18 7.9 66 234
12 Van Mungo BRO SP 26 3.2% 13.2 9 18 16 8.4 93 207
13 Bill Lee CHC SP 27 1.3% 16.3 14 18 20 7.4 65 235
14 Hal Schumacher NYG SP 26 1.3% 13.3 13 11 19 8.0 91 209
15 Waite Hoyt PIT/BRO SP 37 0.0% 7.5 8 7 7 1.5 237 63
16 Jesse Haines STL SP 43 0.0% 4.8 3 7 6 1.5 210 90
17 Earl Whitehill CLE SP 38 0.0% 11.0 8 14 14 1.5 205 95
18 Ted Lyons CHW SP 36 0.0% 11.8 12 10 15 2.1 198 102
19 Guy Bush BSN SP 35 0.0% 7.5 8 5 11 2.5 176 124
20 Charlie Root CHC SP 38 0.0% 10.0 13 3 15 1.5 175 125
21 Freddie Fitzsimmons NYG/BRO SP 35 0.0% 7.0 6 10 4 2.4 174 126
22 Rube Walberg BOS SP 40 0.0% 5.0 5 5 5 1.5 155 145
23 Red Lucas PIT SP 35 0.0% 10.3 8 15 8 2.9 151 149
24 Willis Hudlin CLE SP 31 0.0% 9.0 12 1 15 5.3 138 162
25 Pat Malone NYY SP 34 0.0% 6.5 4 12 3 3.1 134 166
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