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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1936 1935 1934 Yrs Career Needed
1 Dizzy Dean STL SP 26 69.6% 26.3 24 28 30 8.1 121 179
2 Wes Ferrell BOS SP 28 53.4% 20.7 20 25 14 7.0 161 139
3 Carl Hubbell NYG SP 33 27.8% 24.2 26 23 21 4.2 170 130
4 Mel Harder CLE SP 26 27.1% 18.2 15 22 20 8.0 112 188
5 Van Mungo BRO SP 25 21.9% 17.3 18 16 18 9.0 84 216
6 Tommy Bridges DET SP 29 21.6% 22.2 23 21 22 6.3 105 195
7 Lon Warneke CHC SP 27 20.1% 18.3 16 20 22 7.6 100 200
8 Schoolboy Rowe DET SP 26 19.7% 19.8 19 19 24 8.1 69 231
9 Red Ruffing NYY SP 31 16.3% 18.5 20 16 19 5.3 152 148
10 Larry French CHC SP 28 13.7% 16.7 18 17 12 6.8 122 178
11 Hal Schumacher NYG SP 25 11.0% 15.7 11 19 23 8.6 78 222
12 Lefty Grove* BOS SP 36 10.7% 16.5 17 20 8 2.2 240 60
13 Lefty Gomez NYY SP 27 9.4% 14.8 13 12 26 7.4 114 186
14 Paul Derringer CIN SP 29 7.4% 19.3 19 22 15 6.2 92 208
15 Bill Lee CHC SP 26 7.2% 17.8 18 20 13 8.0 51 249
16 Elden Auker DET SP 25 1.0% 15.0 13 18 15 8.5 49 251
17 Waite Hoyt PIT SP 36 0.0% 8.3 7 7 15 1.9 229 71
18 Jesse Haines STL SP 42 0.0% 6.2 7 6 4 1.5 207 93
19 George Uhle CLE RP 37 0.0% 0.3 0 2 1.5 200 100
20 Earl Whitehill WAS SP 37 0.0% 14.0 14 14 14 1.6 197 103
21 Ted Lyons CHW SP 35 0.0% 11.8 10 15 11 2.7 186 114
22 Tom Zachary BRO/PHI RP 40 0.0% 3.3 0 7 6 1.5 186 114
23 Guy Bush PIT/BSN SP 34 0.0% 9.2 5 11 18 3.1 168 132
24 Freddie Fitzsimmons NYG SP 34 0.0% 9.3 10 4 18 3.0 168 132
25 General Crowder DET SP 37 0.0% 8.8 4 16 9 1.5 167 133
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