Choose Metric:

Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1936 1935 1934 Yrs Career Needed
1 Lou Gehrig NYY 1B 33 94.9% 42.7 49 30 49 4.2 427 73
2 Jimmie Foxx* BOS 1B 28 88.7% 39.8 41 36 44 6.8 343 157
3 Mel Ott* NYG RF 27 60.4% 32.7 33 31 35 7.6 275 225
4 Hal Trosky CLE 1B 23 38.0% 35.5 42 26 35 9.8 104 396
5 Wally Berger BSN CF 30 3.7% 29.5 25 34 34 5.6 194 306
6 Joe DiMaggio NYY LF 21 1.0% 21.8 29 11.0 29 471
7 Rogers Hornsby SLB 1B 40 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 1.5 300 200
8 Al Simmons DET CF 34 0.0% 14.8 13 16 18 3.5 269 231
9 Chuck Klein CHC/PHI RF 31 0.0% 22.8 25 21 20 5.0 257 243
10 Goose Goslin DET LF 35 0.0% 18.0 24 9 13 2.6 242 258
11 Jim Bottomley SLB 1B 36 0.0% 9.0 12 1 11 2.3 218 282
12 Gabby Hartnett CHC C 35 0.0% 11.5 7 13 22 2.7 196 304
13 Earl Averill CLE CF 34 0.0% 25.5 28 19 31 3.5 190 310
14 Babe Herman CIN LF 33 0.0% 12.2 13 10 14 4.2 180 320
15 Tony Lazzeri NYY 2B 32 0.0% 13.7 14 13 14 4.5 155 345
16 Bill Terry NYG 1B 37 0.0% 4.3 2 6 8 1.5 154 346
17 Travis Jackson NYG 3B 32 0.0% 9.2 7 9 16 4.4 135 365
18 Kiki Cuyler CIN CF 37 0.0% 6.5 7 6 6 1.5 126 374
19 Charlie Gehringer DET 2B 33 0.0% 15.7 15 19 11 4.1 120 380
20 Mickey Cochrane DET C 33 0.0% 3.0 2 5 2 4.1 117 383
21 Bing Miller BOS RF 41 0.0% 1.7 1 3 1 1.5 116 384
22 Bob Johnson PHA LF 30 0.0% 27.5 25 28 34 5.6 108 392
23 Ripper Collins STL 1B 32 0.0% 20.0 13 23 35 4.6 106 394
24 Heinie Manush BOS LF 34 0.0% 3.2 0 4 11 3.0 106 394
25 Jimmy Dykes CHW 3B 39 0.0% 6.0 7 4 7 1.5 105 395
Page: 1 , 2 , 3 ... 20