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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1935 1934 1933 Yrs Career Needed
1 Dizzy Dean STL SP 25 67.5% 27.3 28 30 20 8.7 97 203
2 Wes Ferrell BOS SP 27 40.3% 19.0 25 14 11 7.6 141 159
3 Mel Harder CLE SP 25 35.2% 20.2 22 20 15 8.6 97 203
4 Hal Schumacher NYG SP 24 30.6% 20.3 19 23 19 9.2 67 233
5 Lon Warneke CHC SP 26 27.6% 20.3 20 22 18 8.2 84 216
6 Lefty Gomez NYY SP 26 20.1% 17.3 12 26 16 8.0 101 199
7 Carl Hubbell NYG SP 32 18.5% 22.3 23 21 23 4.8 144 156
8 Van Mungo BRO SP 24 18.1% 16.7 16 18 16 9.6 66 234
9 Schoolboy Rowe DET SP 25 15.1% 18.7 19 24 7 8.7 50 250
10 Tommy Bridges DET SP 28 13.8% 20.2 21 22 14 6.9 82 218
11 Paul Dean STL SP 22 12.1% 15.8 19 19 10.3 38 262
12 Lefty Grove* BOS SP 35 10.8% 16.7 20 8 24 2.8 223 77
13 Larry French CHC SP 27 8.5% 15.5 17 12 18 7.4 104 196
14 Red Ruffing NYY SP 30 5.6% 15.8 16 19 9 5.9 132 168
15 Paul Derringer CIN SP 28 1.3% 17.2 22 15 7 6.8 73 227
16 Elden Auker DET SP 24 0.2% 14.5 18 15 3 9.1 36 264
17 Sad Sam Jones CHW SP 42 0.0% 8.3 8 8 10 1.5 229 71
18 Waite Hoyt PIT SP 35 0.0% 9.3 7 15 5 2.5 222 78
19 Jesse Haines STL SP 41 0.0% 5.8 6 4 9 1.5 200 100
20 Dazzy Vance BRO RP 44 0.0% 2.8 3 1 6 1.5 197 103
21 Dolf Luque NYG RP 44 0.0% 3.2 1 4 8 1.5 194 106
22 Tom Zachary BRO SP 39 0.0% 6.7 7 6 7 1.5 186 114
23 Earl Whitehill WAS SP 36 0.0% 15.3 14 14 22 2.2 183 117
24 Ted Lyons CHW SP 34 0.0% 12.8 15 11 10 3.3 176 124
25 Guy Bush PIT SP 33 0.0% 14.8 11 18 20 3.7 163 137
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