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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1934 1933 1932 Yrs Career Needed
1 Dizzy Dean STL SP 24 49.6% 24.7 30 20 18 9.3 69 231
2 Lefty Gomez NYY SP 25 41.5% 22.3 26 16 24 8.6 89 211
3 Lon Warneke CHC SP 25 27.5% 20.7 22 18 22 8.8 64 236
4 Hal Schumacher NYG SP 23 22.9% 18.7 23 19 5 9.8 48 252
5 Mel Harder CLE SP 24 21.4% 17.5 20 15 15 9.2 75 225
6 Van Mungo BRO SP 23 17.1% 16.5 18 16 13 10.2 50 250
7 Wes Ferrell BOS SP 26 14.3% 14.5 14 11 23 8.2 116 184
8 Carl Hubbell NYG SP 31 13.7% 21.2 21 23 18 5.4 121 179
9 Schoolboy Rowe DET SP 24 12.4% 18.0 24 7 9.3 31 269
10 Lefty Grove* BOS SP 34 6.8% 16.2 8 24 25 3.4 203 97
11 Tommy Bridges DET SP 27 6.5% 18.0 22 14 14 7.5 61 239
12 Larry French PIT SP 26 6.3% 15.0 12 18 18 8.0 87 213
13 Paul Dean STL SP 21 5.1% 14.3 19 10.9 19 281
14 Red Ruffing NYY SP 29 4.8% 15.5 19 9 18 6.5 116 184
15 Guy Bush CHC SP 32 4.6% 18.8 18 20 19 4.3 152 148
16 Ed Brandt BSN SP 29 0.4% 16.7 16 18 16 6.4 89 211
17 Burleigh Grimes 3 Tms RP 40 0.0% 4.0 4 3 6 1.5 270 30
18 Herb Pennock BOS RP 40 0.0% 4.8 2 7 9 1.5 240 60
19 Sad Sam Jones CHW SP 41 0.0% 9.0 8 10 10 1.5 221 79
20 Waite Hoyt PIT SP 34 0.0% 11.3 15 5 6 3.1 215 85
21 George Uhle NYY RP 35 0.0% 4.3 2 7 6 2.5 200 100
22 Jesse Haines STL RP 40 0.0% 5.5 4 9 3 1.5 194 106
23 Dazzy Vance CIN/STL SP 43 0.0% 4.5 1 6 12 1.5 194 106
24 Dolf Luque NYG RP 43 0.0% 5.7 4 8 6 1.5 193 107
25 Tom Zachary BSN/BRO SP 38 0.0% 7.3 6 7 12 1.5 179 121
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