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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1934 1933 1932 Yrs Career Needed
1 Babe Ruth* NYY RF 39 100.0% 29.2 22 34 41 1.5 708 0
2 Lou Gehrig NYY 1B 31 89.3% 40.8 49 32 34 5.4 348 152
3 Jimmie Foxx* PHA 1B 26 86.1% 47.7 44 48 58 8.0 266 234
4 Mel Ott* NYG RF 25 45.9% 31.5 35 23 38 8.8 211 289
5 Hal Trosky CLE 1B 21 12.3% 26.3 35 1 11.0 36 464
6 Chuck Klein CHC LF 29 4.7% 25.7 20 28 38 6.2 211 289
7 Wally Berger BSN CF 28 3.5% 28.8 34 27 17 6.8 135 365
8 Rogers Hornsby SLB 3B 38 0.0% 1.7 1 3 1 1.5 300 200
9 Hack Wilson BRO/PHI LF 34 0.0% 9.8 6 9 23 3.5 244 256
10 Al Simmons CHW LF 32 0.0% 19.5 18 14 35 4.7 240 260
11 Goose Goslin DET LF 33 0.0% 12.7 13 10 17 3.8 209 291
12 Jim Bottomley CIN 1B 34 0.0% 11.7 11 13 11 3.5 205 295
13 Gabby Hartnett CHC C 33 0.0% 18.3 22 16 12 3.9 176 324
14 Babe Herman CHC RF 31 0.0% 15.0 14 16 16 5.4 157 343
15 Chick Hafey CIN CF 31 0.0% 13.5 18 7 2 5.2 154 346
16 Bill Terry NYG 1B 35 0.0% 10.7 8 6 28 2.6 146 354
17 Earl Averill CLE CF 32 0.0% 24.5 31 11 32 4.7 143 357
18 Tony Lazzeri NYY 2B 30 0.0% 15.5 14 18 15 5.7 128 372
19 Marty McManus BSN 2B 34 0.0% 6.0 8 3 5 3.4 120 380
20 Travis Jackson NYG SS 30 0.0% 12.0 16 0 4 5.6 119 381
21 Don Hurst PHI/CHC 1B 28 0.0% 9.2 5 8 24 6.7 115 385
22 Kiki Cuyler CHC CF 35 0.0% 6.3 6 5 10 2.5 113 387
23 Lefty O'Doul NYG LF 37 0.0% 12.7 9 14 21 1.6 113 387
24 Bing Miller PHA RF 39 0.0% 2.3 1 2 7 1.5 112 388
25 Mickey Cochrane DET C 31 0.0% 9.8 2 15 23 5.3 110 390
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