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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1932 1931 1930 Yrs Career Needed
1 Babe Ruth* NYY RF 37 100.0% 44.0 41 46 49 1.6 652 0
2 Jimmie Foxx* PHA 1B 24 77.2% 45.2 58 30 37 9.2 174 326
3 Lou Gehrig NYY 1B 29 60.6% 39.2 34 46 41 6.6 267 233
4 Mel Ott* NYG RF 23 44.6% 32.8 38 29 25 10.0 153 347
5 Chuck Klein PHI RF 27 28.6% 36.0 38 31 40 7.4 163 337
6 Al Simmons PHA LF 30 12.7% 30.8 35 22 36 5.9 208 292
7 Rogers Hornsby CHC RF 36 0.0% 6.2 1 16 2 2.3 296 204
8 Hack Wilson BRO RF 32 0.0% 25.2 23 13 56 4.7 229 271
9 Goose Goslin SLB LF 31 0.0% 22.7 17 24 37 5.0 186 314
10 Harry Heilmann CIN 1B 37 0.0% 3.2 0 19 1.5 183 317
11 Jim Bottomley STL 1B 32 0.0% 11.0 11 9 15 4.7 181 319
12 High Pockets Kelly BRO 1B 36 0.0% 3.3 4 8 1.9 148 352
13 Gabby Hartnett CHC C 31 0.0% 14.8 12 8 37 5.1 138 362
14 Bill Terry NYG 1B 33 0.0% 21.0 28 9 23 3.8 132 368
15 Chick Hafey CIN LF 29 0.0% 10.7 2 16 26 6.4 129 371
16 Babe Herman CIN RF 29 0.0% 19.8 16 18 35 6.6 127 373
17 Marty McManus BOS 2B 32 0.0% 5.3 5 4 9 4.6 109 391
18 Bing Miller PHA RF 37 0.0% 7.7 7 8 9 1.5 109 391
19 Travis Jackson NYG SS 28 0.0% 5.8 4 5 13 6.8 103 397
20 Kiki Cuyler CHC RF 33 0.0% 10.2 10 9 13 3.7 102 398
21 Don Hurst PHI 1B 26 0.0% 18.5 24 11 17 7.9 102 398
22 Earl Averill CLE CF 30 0.0% 29.8 32 32 19 5.9 101 399
23 George Grantham CIN 2B 32 0.0% 9.3 6 10 18 4.7 100 400
24 Frankie Frisch STL 2B 34 0.0% 4.5 3 4 10 3.1 96 404
25 Tony Lazzeri NYY 2B 28 0.0% 11.7 15 8 9 6.9 96 404
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