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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1930 1929 1928 Yrs Career Needed
1 Pete Alexander* PHI RP 43 100.0% 5.7 0 9 16 1.5 373 0
2 Wes Ferrell CLE SP 22 31.0% 19.5 25 21 0 10.6 46 254
3 Lefty Grove* PHA SP 30 27.4% 24.7 28 20 24 5.8 115 185
4 Ted Lyons CHW SP 29 15.7% 18.2 22 14 15 6.3 126 174
5 Pat Malone CHC SP 27 12.2% 20.3 20 22 18 7.3 60 240
6 Willis Hudlin CLE SP 24 8.3% 14.5 13 17 14 9.5 63 237
7 Freddie Fitzsimmons NYG SP 28 6.7% 17.8 19 15 20 6.6 91 209
8 Waite Hoyt NYY/DET SP 30 6.3% 12.7 11 10 23 5.5 176 124
9 Burleigh Grimes BSN/STL SP 36 5.9% 17.8 16 17 25 1.9 240 60
10 George Uhle DET SP 31 0.9% 13.0 12 15 12 4.9 174 126
11 Eppa Rixey CIN SP 39 0.0% 11.0 9 10 19 1.5 251 49
12 Red Faber CHW SP 41 0.0% 10.5 8 13 13 1.5 239 61
13 Jack Quinn PHA RP 47 0.0% 11.2 9 11 18 1.5 239 61
14 Herb Pennock NYY SP 36 0.0% 11.3 11 9 17 2.2 211 89
15 Sad Sam Jones WAS SP 37 0.0% 13.3 15 9 17 1.5 184 116
16 Dolf Luque BRO SP 39 0.0% 10.5 14 5 11 1.5 168 132
17 Howard Ehmke PHA RP 36 0.0% 3.8 0 7 9 2.3 166 134
18 Jesse Haines STL SP 36 0.0% 14.2 13 13 20 1.8 166 134
19 Dazzy Vance BRO SP 39 0.0% 16.8 17 14 22 1.5 164 136
20 Eddie Rommel PHA SP 32 0.0% 10.7 9 12 13 4.3 163 137
21 Bill Sherdel STL/BSN SP 33 0.0% 11.3 9 10 21 3.7 159 141
22 Tom Zachary NYY/BSN SP 34 0.0% 11.5 12 12 9 3.5 143 157
23 Pete Donohue CIN/NYG SP 29 0.0% 8.5 8 10 7 6.2 134 166
24 Ray Kremer PIT SP 37 0.0% 18.5 20 18 15 1.6 127 173
25 Hal Carlson CHC SP 38 0.0% 6.2 4 11 3 1.5 114 186
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