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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1915 1914 1913 Yrs Career Needed
1 Honus Wagner PIT SS 41 0.0% 4.5 6 1 3 1.5 100 400
2 Sam Crawford DET RF 35 0.0% 6.2 4 8 9 2.9 95 405
3 Frank Schulte CHC LF 32 0.0% 9.2 12 5 9 4.3 86 414
4 Nap Lajoie PHA 2B 40 0.0% 0.8 1 0 1 1.5 81 419
5 Sherry Magee BSN CF 30 0.0% 7.8 2 15 11 5.5 77 423
6 Gavvy Cravath PHI RF 34 0.0% 21.5 24 19 19 3.4 75 425
7 Harry Davis PHA 1B 41 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 1.5 75 425
8 Fred Clarke PIT LF 42 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 1.5 67 433
9 Fred Luderus PHI 1B 29 0.0% 10.5 7 12 18 6.1 64 436
10 Tommy Leach CIN CF 37 0.0% 3.3 0 7 6 1.5 63 437
11 Chief Wilson STL CF 31 0.0% 6.2 3 9 10 4.9 56 444
12 Ty Cobb DET CF 28 0.0% 2.8 3 2 4 6.9 52 448
13 Larry Doyle NYG 2B 28 0.0% 4.5 4 5 5 6.7 51 449
14 Ed Konetchy PTR 1B 29 0.0% 7.7 10 4 8 6.1 50 450
15 Vic Saier CHC 1B 24 0.0% 13.8 11 18 14 9.5 46 454
16 Beals Becker PHI LF 28 0.0% 10.0 11 9 9 6.6 45 455
17 Danny Murphy BTT 2B 38 0.0% 1.3 0 4 0 1.5 44 456
18 Hal Chase BUF 1B 32 0.0% 12.8 17 3 2 4.6 42 458
19 Fred Merkle NYG 1B 26 0.0% 4.8 4 7 3 8.1 42 458
20 Heinie Zimmerman CHC 2B 28 0.0% 4.3 3 4 9 7.0 42 458
21 Tris Speaker BOS CF 27 0.0% 1.8 0 4 3 7.7 39 461
22 Red Murray NYG/CHC RF 31 0.0% 2.3 3 0 2 5.2 37 463
23 Zack Wheat BRO LF 27 0.0% 6.7 5 9 7 7.7 36 464
24 Bobby Wallace SLB SS 41 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 1.5 34 466
25 Fred Beck CHI 1B 28 0.0% 6.2 5 11 6.8 33 467
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