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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1905 1904 1903 Yrs Career Needed
1 Cy Young* BOS SP 38 100.0% 22.3 18 26 28 1.5 423 0
2 Kid Nichols* STL/PHI SP 35 100.0% 12.5 11 21 2.5 361 0
3 Christy Mathewson* NYG SP 24 84.7% 31.5 31 33 30 9.1 128 172
4 Rube Waddell PHA SP 28 48.6% 25.3 27 25 21 6.8 126 174
5 Jack Chesbro NYY SP 31 45.9% 26.7 19 41 21 5.4 151 149
6 Jesse Tannehill BOS SP 30 38.9% 20.5 22 21 15 5.4 175 125
7 Joe McGinnity NYG SP 34 35.3% 27.3 21 35 31 3.4 190 110
8 Eddie Plank* PHA SP 29 28.7% 24.5 24 26 23 6.1 110 190
9 George Mullin DET SP 24 25.7% 19.3 21 17 19 9.0 70 230
10 Addie Joss CLE SP 25 17.8% 17.7 20 14 18 8.9 69 231
11 Chief Bender PHA SP 21 17.3% 15.2 18 10 17 11.3 45 255
12 Bill Dinneen BOS SP 29 17.2% 17.2 12 23 21 6.5 135 165
13 Frank Owen CHW SP 25 15.7% 18.8 21 21 8 8.7 51 249
14 Doc White CHW SP 26 12.6% 16.7 17 16 17 8.3 80 220
15 Red Ames NYG SP 22 12.2% 16.5 22 4 2 10.3 28 272
16 Jack Powell NYY/SLB SP 30 11.7% 15.2 10 23 15 5.4 167 133
17 Vic Willis BSN SP 29 10.8% 14.0 12 18 12 6.5 151 149
18 Bill Donovan DET SP 28 8.4% 17.5 18 17 17 6.8 97 203
19 Noodles Hahn CIN SP 26 5.2% 11.5 5 16 22 8.3 127 173
20 Tom Hughes WAS SP 26 1.2% 14.8 17 9 20 8.0 67 233
21 Jack Taylor STL SP 31 1.2% 17.7 15 20 21 5.1 125 175
22 Andy Coakley PHA SP 22 1.0% 13.5 18 4 0 10.4 24 276
23 Ed Reulbach CHC SP 22 0.0% 13.5 18 10.5 18 282
24 Clark Griffith NYY SP 35 0.0% 9.2 9 7 14 2.6 235 65
25 Al Orth NYY SP 32 0.0% 15.3 18 14 10 4.3 161 139
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