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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1895 1894 1893 Yrs Career Needed
1 Roger Connor STL 1B 38 0.0% 8.5 8 8 11 1.5 126 374
2 Sam Thompson PHI RF 35 0.0% 15.2 18 13 11 2.8 114 386
3 Dan Brouthers BAL/LOU 1B 37 0.0% 4.3 2 9 2 1.7 105 395
4 Cap Anson CHC 1B 43 0.0% 2.7 2 5 0 1.5 92 408
5 Fred Pfeffer LOU SS 35 0.0% 2.2 0 5 3 2.8 92 408
6 Mike Tiernan NYG RF 28 0.0% 7.5 7 5 14 6.9 89 411
7 Jimmy Ryan CHC RF 32 0.0% 4.5 6 3 3 4.6 85 415
8 Hugh Duffy BSN CF 28 0.0% 11.5 9 18 6 6.8 73 427
9 Buck Ewing CIN 1B 35 0.0% 4.2 5 2 6 2.6 70 430
10 Oyster Burns BRO/NYG LF 30 0.0% 3.3 1 5 7 5.5 65 435
11 Bug Holliday CIN CF 28 0.0% 5.2 0 13 5 7.0 63 437
12 Jack Clements PHI C 30 0.0% 10.3 13 3 17 5.4 62 438
13 Tom Brown STL/WAS CF 34 0.0% 5.3 3 9 5 3.1 57 443
14 Billy Nash BSN 3B 30 0.0% 9.3 10 8 10 6.0 57 443
15 Denny Lyons STL 3B 29 0.0% 2.8 2 4 3 6.4 56 444
16 George Van Haltren NYG CF 29 0.0% 6.8 8 7 3 6.4 55 445
17 Walt Wilmot CHC LF 31 0.0% 6.2 8 5 3 5.0 55 445
18 Herman Long BSN SS 29 0.0% 9.5 9 12 6 6.5 53 447
19 Jake Beckley PIT 1B 27 0.0% 5.7 5 7 5 7.3 49 451
20 Ed Delahanty PHI LF 27 0.0% 10.0 11 4 19 7.4 49 451
21 Bobby Lowe BSN 2B 29 0.0% 11.5 7 17 14 6.0 49 451
22 Bid McPhee CIN 2B 35 0.0% 2.7 1 5 3 2.6 49 451
23 Duke Farrell NYG C 28 0.0% 2.5 1 4 4 6.7 45 455
24 Ed McKean CLE SS 31 0.0% 7.3 8 8 4 5.4 45 455
25 Bill Joyce WAS 3B 27 0.0% 14.2 17 17 7.3 44 456
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