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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1873 1872 1871 Yrs Career Needed
1 Al Spalding BOS SP 22 84.4% 36.3 41 38 19 10.3 98 202
2 Bobby Mathews NYM SP 21 59.6% 23.8 29 25 6 11.0 60 240
3 Candy Cummings BAL SP 24 46.0% 25.0 28 33 9.2 61 239
4 Dick McBride PHA SP 26 41.8% 25.0 24 30 18 8.4 72 228
5 George Zettlein PHW SP 28 27.4% 27.0 36 15 18 6.6 69 231
6 Jim Britt BRA SP 17 13.2% 12.8 17 9 13.6 26 274
7 Asa Brainard BAL SP 32 0.0% 5.2 5 2 12 4.5 19 281
8 Rynie Wolters ELI SP 31 0.0% 3.7 0 3 16 5.2 19 281
9 Cherokee Fisher PHA SP 28 0.0% 5.5 3 10 4 6.8 17 283
10 John McMullin PHA LF 24 0.0% 2.8 1 1 12 9.5 14 286
11 Bill Stearns WAS SP 20 0.0% 5.3 7 0 2 11.8 9 291
12 Harry Wright BOS CF 38 0.0% 1.5 2 1 1 1.5 4 296
13 Phonney Martin NYM RP 27 0.0% 1.0 0 3 7.3 3 297
14 Hugh Campbell ELI SP 27 0.0% 1.5 2 7.5 2 298
15 George Bechtel PHW RF 24 0.0% 0.2 0 1 9.1 1 299
16 Davy Force BAL 3B 23 0.0% 0.8 1 9.6 1 299
17 John Greason WAS SP 21 0.0% 0.8 1 10.8 1 299
18 Bob Ferguson BRA 3B 28 0.0% 0.0 0 0 7.0 0 300
19 Frank Fleet ELI 2B 25 0.0% 0.0 0 0 8.7 0 300
20 Bill French MAR 1B 24 0.0% 0.0 0 9.3 0 300
21 Chick Fulmer PHW SS 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.6 0 300
22 Len Lovett ELI SP 20 0.0% 0.0 0 11.4 0 300
23 McDoolan MAR SP 0.0% 0.0 0 24.0 0 300
24 Frank Sellman MAR SP 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.5 0 300
25 Ed Stratton MAR SP 19 0.0% 0.0 0 12.3 0 300
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