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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1873 1872 1871 Yrs Career Needed
1 Lip Pike BAL RF 28 0.0% 4.7 4 6 4 7.1 14 486
2 Levi Meyerle PHW 3B 24 0.0% 2.5 3 1 4 9.6 8 492
3 Fred Treacey PHW CF 26 0.0% 1.8 1 2 4 8.1 7 493
4 Ned Cuthbert PHW LF 28 0.0% 1.8 2 1 3 7.2 6 494
5 George Wright BOS SS 26 0.0% 2.3 3 2 0 8.1 5 495
6 Tom York BAL LF 22 0.0% 1.7 2 1 2 10.2 5 495
7 Count Gedney NYM LF 24 0.0% 1.5 1 3 9.5 4 496
8 Ross Barnes BOS 2B 23 0.0% 1.5 2 1 0 10.1 3 497
9 Tom Carey BAL 2B 26 0.0% 1.2 1 2 0 8.0 3 497
10 Cherokee Fisher PHA SP 28 0.0% 1.0 1 1 1 6.8 3 497
11 George Hall BAL CF 24 0.0% 0.7 0 1 2 9.4 3 497
12 John Hatfield NYM 3B 25 0.0% 1.5 2 1 0 8.4 3 497
13 Harry Schafer BOS LF 26 0.0% 1.5 2 1 0 7.9 3 497
14 Ezra Sutton PHA 3B 23 0.0% 0.5 0 0 3 9.7 3 497
15 Jimmy Wood PHW 2B 29 0.0% 0.8 0 2 1 6.3 3 497
16 Doug Allison ELI/NYM C 26 0.0% 0.3 0 0 2 7.8 2 498
17 George Bechtel PHW RF 24 0.0% 0.8 1 0 1 9.1 2 498
18 Bill Boyd BRA RF 20 0.0% 0.8 1 1 11.7 2 498
19 Jack Burdock BRA 2B 21 0.0% 1.5 2 0 11.3 2 498
20 John Clapp PHA C 21 0.0% 0.8 1 1 10.8 2 498
21 Chick Fulmer PHW SS 22 0.0% 0.8 1 1 0 10.6 2 498
22 Dick Higham NYM C 21 0.0% 0.7 0 2 0 10.8 2 498
23 Andy Leonard BOS LF 27 0.0% 0.7 0 2 0 7.8 2 498
24 Cal McVey BAL C 23 0.0% 1.5 2 0 0 9.7 2 498
25 Dickey Pearce BRA SS 37 0.0% 0.8 1 1 0 1.6 2 498
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