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Bill James' Favorite Toy (Career Assessments)


Favorite Toy is described in the Bill James Handbook as "A method that takes into account a player's age and performance level in predicted the probability that he will accumulate certain career stats." This method would later be referred to as "Career Assessments".

Remaining Seasons

Remaining seasons = 24 - .6 * age
* cannot be lower than 1.5

Established Level

Yr1 = Statistic in most recent season
Yr2 = Statistic in the year before the most recent season
Yr3 = Statistic two years before the most recent season
Established Level = (Yr1 * 3 + Yr2 * 2 + Yr3) / 6
* Established Level cannot be lower than 75% of the statistic from the most recent season

Projected Remaining Total

Projected remaining total = Remaining seasons * Established Level

Probability of Reaching Goal

Needed = goal - career total
Probability = Projected remaining total - (Needed / 2) / Needed
* cannot be higher than .97^(Needed / Established Level)