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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2018 2017 2016 Yrs Career Needed
1 Rick Porcello BOS SP 29 13.6% 16.9 15 11 22 6.3 133 167
2 Chris Sale BOS SP 29 4.0% 16.5 12 17 17 6.4 103 197
3 Luis Severino NYY SP 24 1.6% 14.5 15 14 3 9.4 37 263
4 Bartolo Colon TEX SP 45 0.0% 9.4 7 7 15 1.5 247 53
5 CC Sabathia NYY SP 37 0.0% 11.0 7 14 9 1.5 244 56
6 Justin Verlander HOU SP 35 0.0% 15.0 11 15 16 2.8 199 101
7 Zack Greinke ARI SP 34 0.0% 15.7 12 17 13 3.2 184 116
8 Jon Lester CHC SP 34 0.0% 16.0 13 13 19 3.3 172 128
9 Felix Hernandez SEA SP 32 0.0% 8.9 8 6 11 4.7 168 132
10 Max Scherzer WAS SP 33 0.0% 18.9 16 16 20 3.6 157 143
11 Cole Hamels TEX/CHC SP 34 0.0% 11.6 8 11 15 3.3 155 145
12 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 30 0.0% 11.9 5 18 12 5.8 149 151
13 Ervin Santana MIN SP 35 0.0% 7.4 0 16 7 2.7 149 151
14 Adam Wainwright STL SP 36 0.0% 7.6 1 12 13 1.9 147 153
15 James Shields CHW SP 36 0.0% 5.9 5 5 6 2.1 143 157
16 David Price BOS SP 32 0.0% 12.3 12 6 17 4.3 139 161
17 Johnny Cueto SFG SP 32 0.0% 8.1 3 8 18 4.6 125 175
18 Gio Gonzalez WAS SP 32 0.0% 11.7 7 15 11 4.3 124 176
19 Yovani Gallardo CIN/TEX SP 32 0.0% 7.0 7 5 6 4.6 120 180
20 Madison Bumgarner SFG SP 28 0.0% 6.6 4 4 15 6.7 108 192
21 J. A. Happ TOR/NYY SP 35 0.0% 15.0 13 10 20 2.6 105 195
22 Francisco Liriano DET SP 34 0.0% 5.5 3 6 8 3.2 105 195
23 Jorge De La Rosa ARI/CHC RP 37 0.0% 2.7 0 3 8 1.7 104 196
24 Edwin Jackson OAK SP 34 0.0% 5.1 4 5 5 3.1 102 198
25 Jake Arrieta PHI SP 32 0.0% 13.9 9 14 18 4.6 97 203
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