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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2018 2017 2016 Yrs Career Needed
1 Rick Porcello BOS SP 29 10.4% 15.8 17 11 22 6.3 135 165
2 Luis Severino NYY SP 24 3.1% 14.7 19 14 3 9.4 41 259
3 Blake Snell TBR SP 25 0.9% 15.8 21 5 6 8.7 32 268
4 Bartolo Colon TEX SP 45 0.0% 8.3 7 7 15 1.5 247 53
5 CC Sabathia NYY SP 37 0.0% 10.7 9 14 9 1.5 246 54
6 Justin Verlander HOU SP 35 0.0% 15.7 16 15 16 2.8 204 96
7 Zack Greinke ARI SP 34 0.0% 15.3 15 17 13 3.2 187 113
8 Jon Lester CHC SP 34 0.0% 16.4 18 13 19 3.3 177 123
9 Felix Hernandez SEA SP 32 0.0% 7.8 8 6 11 4.7 168 132
10 Max Scherzer WAS SP 33 0.0% 17.7 18 16 20 3.6 159 141
11 Cole Hamels TEX/CHC SP 34 0.0% 10.7 9 11 15 3.3 156 144
12 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 30 0.0% 12.5 9 18 12 5.8 153 147
13 Ervin Santana MIN SP 35 0.0% 6.5 0 16 7 2.7 149 151
14 Adam Wainwright STL SP 36 0.0% 7.2 2 12 13 1.9 148 152
15 James Shields CHW SP 36 0.0% 6.2 7 5 6 2.1 145 155
16 David Price BOS SP 32 0.0% 12.8 16 6 17 4.3 143 157
17 Gio Gonzalez WAS/MIL SP 32 0.0% 11.8 10 15 11 4.3 127 173
18 Johnny Cueto SFG SP 32 0.0% 7.2 3 8 18 4.6 125 175
19 Yovani Gallardo CIN/TEX SP 32 0.0% 6.7 8 5 6 4.6 121 179
20 Madison Bumgarner SFG SP 28 0.0% 6.8 6 4 15 6.7 110 190
21 J. A. Happ TOR/NYY SP 35 0.0% 15.2 17 10 20 2.6 109 191
22 Francisco Liriano DET SP 34 0.0% 5.8 5 6 8 3.2 107 193
23 Jorge De La Rosa ARI/CHC RP 37 0.0% 2.3 0 3 8 1.7 104 196
24 Edwin Jackson OAK SP 34 0.0% 5.5 6 5 5 3.1 104 196
25 Chris Sale BOS SP 29 0.0% 14.5 12 17 17 6.4 103 197
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