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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2018 2017 2016 Yrs Career Needed
1 Rick Porcello BOS SP 29 6.3% 15.6 8 11 22 6.3 126 174
2 Chris Sale BOS SP 29 0.1% 15.8 6 17 17 6.4 97 203
3 Bartolo Colon TEX SP 45 0.0% 9.3 4 7 15 1.5 244 56
4 CC Sabathia NYY SP 37 0.0% 11.4 4 14 9 1.5 241 59
5 Justin Verlander HOU SP 35 0.0% 16.6 9 15 16 2.8 197 103
6 Zack Greinke ARI SP 34 0.0% 14.9 6 17 13 3.2 178 122
7 Jon Lester CHC SP 34 0.0% 16.1 8 13 19 3.3 167 133
8 Felix Hernandez SEA SP 32 0.0% 9.4 6 6 11 4.7 166 134
9 Cole Hamels TEX SP 34 0.0% 11.2 4 11 15 3.3 151 149
10 Max Scherzer WAS SP 33 0.0% 19.0 10 16 20 3.6 151 149
11 Adam Wainwright STL SP 36 0.0% 9.3 1 12 13 1.9 147 153
12 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 30 0.0% 11.8 1 18 12 5.8 145 155
13 James Shields CHW SP 36 0.0% 5.1 2 5 6 2.1 140 160
14 David Price BOS SP 32 0.0% 12.1 8 6 17 4.3 135 165
15 Johnny Cueto SFG SP 32 0.0% 9.8 3 8 18 4.6 125 175
16 Gio Gonzalez WAS SP 32 0.0% 13.7 6 15 11 4.3 123 177
17 Yovani Gallardo CIN/TEX RP 32 0.0% 3.7 0 5 6 4.6 113 187
18 Francisco Liriano DET SP 34 0.0% 6.6 3 6 8 3.2 105 195
19 Madison Bumgarner SFG SP 28 0.0% 5.3 0 4 15 6.7 104 196
20 Jorge De La Rosa ARI RP 37 0.0% 3.2 0 3 8 1.7 104 196
21 J. A. Happ TOR SP 35 0.0% 14.8 8 10 20 2.6 100 200
22 Jason Hammel KCR SP 35 0.0% 8.5 2 8 15 2.5 94 206
23 Jake Arrieta PHI SP 32 0.0% 14.1 5 14 18 4.6 93 207
24 Anibal Sanchez ATL SP 34 0.0% 5.1 3 3 7 3.4 93 207
25 Ian Kennedy KCR SP 33 0.0% 5.5 1 5 11 3.9 92 208
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