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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2018 2017 2016 Yrs Career Needed
1 Albert Pujols* LAA 1B 38 100.0% 25.9 12 23 31 1.5 626 0
2 Miguel Cabrera DET 1B 35 94.3% 18.1 3 16 38 2.9 465 35
3 Giancarlo Stanton NYY LF 28 86.6% 45.6 17 59 27 6.8 284 216
4 Mike Trout LAA CF 26 56.9% 37.5 23 33 29 7.9 224 276
5 Manny Machado BAL SS 25 38.9% 36.4 18 33 37 8.4 156 344
6 Bryce Harper WAS RF 25 33.5% 32.2 19 29 24 8.6 169 331
7 Justin Upton LAA LF 30 32.1% 34.1 16 35 31 5.5 272 228
8 Nolan Arenado COL 3B 27 31.9% 36.1 14 37 41 7.7 162 338
9 Edwin Encarnacion CLE DH 35 26.4% 38.3 16 38 42 2.7 364 136
10 Aaron Judge NYY RF 26 23.4% 37.7 18 52 4 8.3 74 426
11 Khris Davis OAK DH 30 23.3% 43.2 20 43 42 5.7 165 335
12 Adrian Beltre TEX 3B 39 23.2% 17.1 3 17 32 1.5 465 35
13 J. D. Martinez BOS DH 30 18.5% 40.7 22 45 22 5.5 174 326
14 Joey Gallo TEX LF 24 16.4% 31.2 18 41 1 9.2 66 434
15 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 28 15.6% 31.2 15 28 34 6.7 181 319
16 Francisco Lindor CLE SS 24 14.8% 29.8 16 33 15 9.2 76 424
17 Mookie Betts BOS RF 25 14.5% 30.4 18 24 31 8.6 96 404
18 Jay Bruce NYM RF 31 13.4% 26.5 3 36 33 5.3 280 220
19 Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B 28 11.9% 30.0 11 32 32 6.7 177 323
20 Jose Ramirez CLE 3B 25 10.3% 30.5 21 29 11 8.5 69 431
21 Cody Bellinger LAD 1B 22 9.9% 26.3 12 39 10.2 51 449
22 Paul Goldschmidt ARI 1B 30 9.3% 33.1 16 36 24 5.5 192 308
23 Kris Bryant CHC 3B 26 8.9% 28.9 9 29 39 8.1 103 397
24 Gary Sanchez NYY C 25 8.0% 29.1 13 33 20 8.7 66 434
25 Carlos Correa HOU SS 23 6.4% 24.4 13 24 20 9.7 79 421
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