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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2018 2017 2016 Yrs Career Needed
1 Albert Pujols* LAA 1B 38 100.0% 24.7 18 23 31 1.5 632 0
2 Giancarlo Stanton NYY LF 28 87.3% 45.3 31 59 27 6.8 298 202
3 Miguel Cabrera DET 1B 35 73.1% 15.0 3 16 38 2.9 465 35
4 Mike Trout LAA CF 26 52.1% 34.9 30 33 29 7.9 231 269
5 Nolan Arenado COL 3B 27 42.9% 39.0 30 37 41 7.7 178 322
6 Manny Machado BAL/LAD SS 25 39.4% 35.5 28 33 37 8.4 166 334
7 Bryce Harper WAS RF 25 37.3% 32.6 30 29 24 8.6 180 320
8 Justin Upton LAA LF 30 35.1% 33.8 26 35 31 5.5 282 218
9 Adrian Beltre TEX 3B 39 29.5% 16.4 7 17 32 1.5 469 31
10 Edwin Encarnacion CLE DH 35 28.6% 36.8 25 38 42 2.7 373 127
11 Khris Davis OAK DH 30 27.4% 43.7 34 43 42 5.7 179 321
12 J. D. Martinez BOS DH 30 24.5% 42.3 37 45 22 5.5 189 311
13 Joey Gallo TEX LF 24 24.3% 33.8 32 41 1 9.2 80 420
14 Francisco Lindor CLE SS 24 21.9% 32.1 29 33 15 9.2 89 411
15 Jose Ramirez CLE 3B 25 20.6% 34.3 37 29 11 8.5 85 415
16 Aaron Judge NYY RF 26 20.2% 35.4 26 52 4 8.3 82 418
17 Mookie Betts BOS RF 25 15.7% 30.3 27 24 31 8.6 105 395
18 Paul Goldschmidt ARI 1B 30 13.6% 34.1 28 36 24 5.5 204 296
19 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 28 11.3% 28.6 20 28 34 6.7 186 314
20 Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B 28 10.3% 28.6 18 32 32 6.7 184 316
21 Rougned Odor TEX 2B 24 9.9% 25.5 14 30 33 9.4 102 398
22 Cody Bellinger LAD 1B 22 9.1% 25.6 19 39 10.2 58 442
23 Trevor Story COL SS 25 8.0% 28.5 25 24 27 8.6 76 424
24 Eugenio Suarez CIN 3B 26 4.8% 28.7 26 26 21 7.8 90 410
25 Chris Davis BAL 1B 32 4.5% 25.7 15 26 38 4.6 282 218
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