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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2018 2017 2016 Yrs Career Needed
1 Albert Pujols* LAA 1B 38 100.0% 22.3 19 23 31 1.5 633 0
2 Giancarlo Stanton NYY DH 28 87.1% 43.2 38 59 27 6.8 305 195
3 Adrian Beltre TEX 3B 39 70.7% 18.5 15 17 32 1.5 477 23
4 Miguel Cabrera DET 1B 35 58.3% 13.2 3 16 38 2.9 465 35
5 Mike Trout LAA CF 26 56.8% 35.3 39 33 29 7.9 240 260
6 Nolan Arenado COL 3B 27 43.0% 38.0 38 37 41 7.7 186 314
7 Manny Machado BAL/LAD SS 25 42.1% 35.6 37 33 37 8.4 175 325
8 Khris Davis OAK DH 30 33.9% 45.3 48 43 42 5.7 193 307
9 Bryce Harper WAS RF 25 33.2% 30.7 34 29 24 8.6 184 316
10 Justin Upton LAA LF 30 31.7% 31.8 30 35 31 5.5 286 214
11 Edwin Encarnacion CLE DH 35 30.6% 35.7 32 38 42 2.7 380 120
12 Joey Gallo TEX LF 24 25.8% 33.8 40 41 1 9.2 88 412
13 Francisco Lindor CLE SS 24 24.6% 32.5 38 33 15 9.2 98 402
14 J. D. Martinez BOS DH 30 22.2% 40.2 43 45 22 5.5 195 305
15 Trevor Story COL SS 25 14.7% 30.9 37 24 27 8.6 88 412
16 Mookie Betts BOS RF 25 14.0% 29.2 32 24 31 8.6 110 390
17 Jose Ramirez CLE 3B 25 14.0% 31.0 39 29 11 8.5 87 413
18 Aaron Judge NYY RF 26 12.6% 31.5 27 52 4 8.3 83 417
19 Paul Goldschmidt ARI 1B 30 11.6% 32.5 33 36 24 5.5 209 291
20 Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B 28 11.3% 28.4 25 32 32 6.7 191 309
21 Cody Bellinger LAD 1B 22 9.6% 25.4 25 39 10.2 64 436
22 Rougned Odor TEX 2B 24 8.2% 24.5 18 30 33 9.4 106 394
23 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 28 7.3% 26.5 23 28 34 6.7 189 311
24 Eugenio Suarez CIN 3B 26 6.8% 29.2 34 26 21 7.8 98 402
25 Javier Baez CHC 2B 25 5.6% 26.9 34 23 14 8.7 81 419
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