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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2017 2016 2015 Yrs Career Needed
1 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 29 14.6% 15.7 18 12 16 6.4 144 156
2 Chris Sale BOS SP 28 5.1% 16.3 17 17 13 7.0 91 209
3 Rick Porcello BOS SP 28 4.3% 14.3 11 22 9 6.9 118 182
4 Bartolo Colon ATL/MIN SP 44 0.0% 10.8 7 15 14 1.5 240 60
5 CC Sabathia NYY SP 36 0.0% 11.0 14 9 6 1.8 237 63
6 John Lackey CHC SP 38 0.0% 11.8 12 11 13 1.5 188 112
7 Justin Verlander DET/HOU SP 34 0.0% 13.7 15 16 5 3.4 188 112
8 Zack Greinke ARI SP 33 0.0% 16.0 17 13 19 3.8 172 128
9 Felix Hernandez SEA SP 31 0.0% 9.7 6 11 18 5.3 160 140
10 Jon Lester CHC SP 33 0.0% 14.7 13 19 11 3.9 159 141
11 Jered Weaver SDP SP 34 0.0% 5.2 0 12 7 3.2 150 150
12 Ervin Santana MIN SP 34 0.0% 12.0 16 7 7 3.3 149 151
13 Bronson Arroyo CIN SP 40 0.0% 2.3 3 1.5 148 152
14 Cole Hamels TEX SP 33 0.0% 12.7 11 15 13 3.9 147 153
15 Adam Wainwright STL SP 35 0.0% 10.7 12 13 2 2.5 146 154
16 Max Scherzer WAS SP 32 0.0% 17.0 16 20 14 4.2 141 159
17 James Shields CHW SP 35 0.0% 6.7 5 6 13 2.7 138 162
18 David Price BOS SP 31 0.0% 11.7 6 17 18 4.9 127 173
19 Johnny Cueto SFG SP 31 0.0% 11.8 8 18 11 5.2 122 178
20 R. A. Dickey ATL SP 42 0.0% 10.2 10 10 11 1.5 120 180
21 Gio Gonzalez WAS SP 31 0.0% 13.0 15 11 11 4.9 117 183
22 Ubaldo Jimenez BAL SP 33 0.0% 7.7 6 8 12 3.9 114 186
23 Ricky Nolasco LAA SP 34 0.0% 6.5 6 8 5 3.3 114 186
24 Yovani Gallardo SEA SP 31 0.0% 6.7 5 6 13 5.2 113 187
25 Madison Bumgarner SFG SP 27 0.0% 10.0 4 15 18 7.3 104 196
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