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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2017 2016 2015 Yrs Career Needed
1 Albert Pujols* LAA DH 37 100.0% 28.5 23 31 40 1.5 614 0
2 Miguel Cabrera DET 1B 34 95.2% 23.7 16 38 18 3.5 462 38
3 Giancarlo Stanton MIA RF 27 85.2% 44.3 59 27 27 7.4 267 233
4 Mike Trout LAA CF 25 43.4% 33.0 33 29 41 8.5 201 299
5 Nolan Arenado COL 3B 26 42.1% 39.2 37 41 42 8.3 148 352
6 Adrian Beltre TEX 3B 38 37.5% 22.2 17 32 18 1.5 462 38
7 Jay Bruce NYM/CLE RF 30 37.5% 33.3 36 33 26 5.9 277 223
8 Manny Machado BAL 3B 24 36.3% 34.7 33 37 35 9.0 138 362
9 Edwin Encarnacion CLE DH 34 36.1% 39.5 38 42 39 3.3 348 152
10 Justin Upton DET/LAA LF 29 30.3% 32.2 35 31 26 6.1 256 244
11 Aaron Judge NYY RF 25 28.1% 39.0 52 4 8.9 56 444
12 Bryce Harper WAS RF 24 27.3% 29.5 29 24 42 9.2 150 350
13 Chris Davis BAL 1B 31 25.1% 33.5 26 38 47 5.2 267 233
14 Khris Davis OAK LF 29 20.8% 40.0 43 42 27 6.3 145 355
15 Rougned Odor TEX 2B 23 19.3% 28.7 30 33 16 10.0 88 412
16 Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B 27 19.2% 31.8 32 32 31 7.3 166 334
17 Cody Bellinger LAD 1B 21 18.6% 29.3 39 10.8 39 461
18 Kris Bryant CHC 3B 25 18.3% 31.8 29 39 26 8.7 94 406
19 Joey Gallo TEX 3B 23 16.9% 30.8 41 1 6 9.8 48 452
20 J. D. Martinez DET/ARI RF 29 13.2% 36.2 45 22 38 6.1 152 348
21 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 27 12.1% 28.3 28 34 18 7.3 166 334
22 Brian Dozier MIN 2B 30 10.5% 35.7 34 42 28 5.9 151 349
23 Paul Goldschmidt ARI 1B 29 9.5% 31.5 36 24 33 6.1 176 324
24 Miguel Sano MIN 3B 24 6.2% 25.3 28 25 18 9.5 71 429
25 Jonathan Schoop BAL 2B 25 6.0% 26.8 32 25 15 8.6 89 411
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