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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2015 2014 2013 Yrs Career Needed
1 Alex Rodriguez* NYY DH 39 100.0% 24.8 33 7 1.5 687 0
2 Albert Pujols* LAA 1B 35 100.0% 32.2 40 28 17 2.7 560 0
3 David Ortiz* BOS DH 39 100.0% 35.2 37 35 30 1.5 503 0
4 Miguel Cabrera DET 1B 32 75.4% 24.7 18 25 44 4.7 408 92
5 Mike Trout LAA CF 23 49.0% 37.0 41 36 27 9.7 139 361
6 Chris Davis BAL 1B 29 38.7% 41.0 47 26 53 6.4 203 297
7 Bryce Harper WAS RF 22 31.1% 31.5 42 13 20 10.4 97 403
8 Giancarlo Stanton MIA RF 25 30.6% 29.8 27 37 24 8.6 181 319
9 Edwin Encarnacion TOR DH 32 21.6% 36.8 39 34 36 4.5 268 232
10 Nolan Arenado COL 3B 24 19.4% 31.5 42 18 10 9.5 70 430
11 Justin Upton SDP LF 27 13.9% 27.2 26 29 27 7.3 190 310
12 Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B 25 13.8% 30.0 31 32 23 8.5 102 398
13 Mark Teixeira NYY 1B 35 13.1% 23.3 31 22 3 2.9 394 106
14 Manny Machado BAL 3B 22 12.0% 26.3 35 12 14 10.2 68 432
15 Jay Bruce CIN RF 28 8.0% 24.0 26 18 30 7.1 208 292
16 Carlos Gonzalez COL RF 29 7.2% 30.0 40 11 26 6.2 176 324
17 Adam Jones BAL CF 29 7.1% 28.7 27 29 33 6.1 196 304
18 Paul Goldschmidt ARI 1B 27 4.9% 28.8 33 19 36 7.3 116 384
19 Josh Donaldson TOR 3B 29 4.0% 34.2 41 29 24 6.3 104 396
20 Jose Bautista TOR RF 34 4.0% 36.3 40 35 28 3.2 286 214
21 Adrian Beltre TEX 3B 36 2.8% 20.3 18 19 30 2.3 413 87
22 Adrian Gonzalez LAD 1B 33 2.2% 26.7 28 27 22 4.1 290 210
23 Chris Carter HOU 1B 28 1.3% 29.2 24 37 29 6.9 109 391
24 J. D. Martinez DET RF 27 0.0% 28.5 38 23 7 7.3 85 415
25 Carlos Beltran NYY RF 38 0.0% 18.5 19 15 24 1.5 392 108
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