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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2013 2012 2011 Yrs Career Needed
1 CC Sabathia NYY SP 32 17.6% 15.2 14 15 19 4.2 205 95
2 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 25 14.0% 16.2 16 14 21 8.8 77 223
3 Justin Verlander DET SP 30 7.4% 16.2 13 17 24 5.8 137 163
4 Madison Bumgarner SFG SP 23 3.8% 14.0 13 16 13 9.7 49 251
5 Max Scherzer DET SP 28 3.7% 18.3 21 16 15 6.6 73 227
6 Felix Hernandez SEA SP 27 1.1% 12.7 12 13 14 7.7 110 190
7 Andy Pettitte NYY SP 41 0.0% 8.3 11 5 1.5 256 44
8 Tim Hudson ATL SP 37 0.0% 12.0 8 16 16 1.5 205 95
9 Roy Halladay PHI SP 36 0.0% 8.8 4 11 19 2.3 203 97
10 Bartolo Colon OAK SP 40 0.0% 13.7 18 10 8 1.5 189 111
11 Mark Buehrle TOR SP 34 0.0% 12.5 12 13 13 3.4 186 114
12 Derek Lowe TEX RP 40 0.0% 5.0 1 9 9 1.5 176 124
13 Barry Zito SFG SP 35 0.0% 8.0 5 15 3 2.9 165 135
14 Roy Oswalt COL SP 35 0.0% 2.8 0 4 9 2.5 163 137
15 Freddy Garcia BAL/ATL SP 36 0.0% 6.3 4 7 12 2.0 156 144
16 A. J. Burnett PIT SP 36 0.0% 12.2 10 16 11 2.1 147 153
17 Cliff Lee PHI SP 34 0.0% 11.8 14 6 17 3.1 139 161
18 Bronson Arroyo CIN SP 36 0.0% 12.5 14 12 9 2.2 138 162
19 John Lackey BOS SP 34 0.0% 7.5 10 12 3.2 138 162
20 Jon Garland COL SP 33 0.0% 3.0 4 1 3.7 136 164
21 Josh Beckett LAD SP 33 0.0% 4.5 0 7 13 4.1 132 168
22 Ryan Dempster BOS SP 36 0.0% 9.7 8 12 10 2.3 132 168
23 Jake Peavy CHW/BOS SP 32 0.0% 10.8 12 11 7 4.7 132 168
24 Ted Lilly LAD SP 37 0.0% 3.7 0 5 12 1.5 130 170
25 Dan Haren WAS SP 32 0.0% 11.7 10 12 16 4.3 129 171
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