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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2013 2012 2011 Yrs Career Needed
1 Alex Rodriguez* NYY 3B 37 100.0% 12.2 7 18 16 1.5 654 0
2 Albert Pujols* LAA DH 33 99.0% 24.7 17 30 37 3.9 492 8
3 Adam Dunn CHW 1B 33 94.5% 32.5 34 41 11 3.8 440 60
4 Miguel Cabrera DET 3B 30 90.6% 41.7 44 44 30 5.9 365 135
5 Adrian Beltre TEX 3B 34 40.2% 32.3 30 36 32 3.5 376 124
6 Prince Fielder DET 1B 29 37.3% 28.8 25 30 38 6.5 285 215
7 Chris Davis BAL 1B 27 31.9% 39.8 53 33 5 7.6 130 370
8 Jay Bruce CIN RF 26 27.8% 31.7 30 34 32 8.3 164 336
9 Giancarlo Stanton MIA RF 23 26.9% 30.0 24 37 34 9.8 117 383
10 Edwin Encarnacion TOR 1B 30 15.2% 34.8 36 42 17 5.7 195 305
11 Adam Jones BAL CF 27 13.1% 31.3 33 32 25 7.3 140 360
12 Mark Trumbo LAA 1B 27 10.4% 32.5 34 32 29 7.5 95 405
13 Mike Trout LAA CF 21 10.3% 24.3 27 30 5 10.9 62 438
14 David Ortiz* BOS DH 37 9.8% 27.5 30 23 29 1.5 431 69
15 Evan Longoria TBR 3B 27 8.4% 26.8 32 17 31 7.4 162 338
16 Justin Upton ATL LF 25 6.6% 24.3 27 17 31 8.5 135 365
17 Pedro Alvarez PIT 3B 26 6.5% 28.7 36 30 4 8.2 86 414
18 Robinson Cano NYY 2B 30 5.0% 29.2 27 33 28 5.6 204 296
19 Paul Goldschmidt ARI 1B 25 2.7% 27.0 36 20 8 8.5 64 436
20 Alfonso Soriano CHC/NYY LF 37 1.4% 32.0 34 32 26 1.5 406 94
21 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 23 1.0% 22.7 23 23 21 9.7 68 432
22 Ryan Braun MIL LF 29 1.0% 23.7 9 41 33 6.2 211 289
23 Jason Giambi CLE DH 42 0.0% 7.0 9 1 13 1.5 438 62
24 Paul Konerko CHW 1B 37 0.0% 19.8 12 26 31 1.6 434 66
25 Todd Helton COL 1B 39 0.0% 12.2 15 7 14 1.5 369 131
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