Choose Metric:

Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2012 2011 2010 Yrs Career Needed
1 Alex Rodriguez* NYY 3B 36 100.0% 19.3 18 16 30 1.8 647 0
2 Jim Thome* PHI/BAL DH 41 100.0% 13.2 8 15 25 1.5 612 0
3 Albert Pujols* LAA 1B 32 97.8% 34.3 30 37 42 4.5 475 25
4 Adam Dunn CHW DH 32 91.1% 30.8 41 11 38 4.4 406 94
5 Miguel Cabrera DET 3B 29 86.7% 38.3 44 30 38 6.5 321 179
6 Prince Fielder DET 1B 28 47.8% 33.0 30 38 32 7.1 260 240
7 Mark Teixeira NYY 1B 32 37.9% 30.5 24 39 33 4.7 338 162
8 Adrian Beltre TEX 3B 33 37.9% 33.3 36 32 28 4.1 346 154
9 Giancarlo Stanton MIA RF 22 35.7% 33.5 37 34 22 10.4 93 407
10 Paul Konerko CHW 1B 36 34.4% 29.8 26 31 39 2.2 422 78
11 Ryan Braun MIL LF 28 31.7% 35.7 41 33 25 6.8 202 298
12 Jay Bruce CIN RF 25 27.0% 31.8 34 32 25 8.9 134 366
13 Curtis Granderson NYY CF 31 20.6% 39.2 43 41 24 5.2 210 290
14 Chipper Jones ATL 3B 40 18.7% 14.7 14 18 10 1.5 468 32
15 Andruw Jones NYY LF 35 13.4% 14.5 14 13 19 2.9 434 66
16 Matt Kemp LAD CF 27 11.3% 29.2 23 39 28 7.3 151 349
17 Mark Reynolds BAL 1B 28 10.8% 29.2 23 37 32 6.7 181 319
18 Aramis Ramirez MIL 3B 34 9.8% 26.3 27 26 25 3.6 342 158
19 Robinson Cano NYY 2B 29 8.7% 30.7 33 28 29 6.2 177 323
20 Edwin Encarnacion TOR DH 29 8.3% 31.5 42 17 21 6.3 159 341
21 Jose Bautista TOR RF 31 7.9% 36.8 27 43 54 5.0 183 317
22 Mike Trout LAA CF 20 5.4% 22.5 30 5 11.5 35 465
23 Josh Hamilton TEX CF 31 5.3% 35.2 43 25 32 5.3 161 339
24 Adam Jones BAL CF 26 4.9% 27.5 32 25 19 7.9 107 393
25 David Ortiz* BOS DH 36 4.3% 26.5 23 29 32 2.0 401 99
Page: 1 , 2 , 3 ... 52