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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2006 2005 2004 Yrs Career Needed
1 Barry Bonds* SFG LF 41 100.0% 22.2 26 5 45 1.5 734 0
2 Ken Griffey* CIN CF 36 100.0% 28.5 27 35 20 2.0 563 0
3 Frank Thomas* OAK DH 38 98.7% 29.3 39 12 18 1.5 487 13
4 Manny Ramirez* BOS LF 34 97.7% 39.7 35 45 43 3.5 470 30
5 Jim Thome* CHW DH 35 97.3% 31.5 42 7 42 2.5 472 28
6 Alex Rodriguez* NYY 3B 30 97.3% 39.5 35 48 36 5.4 464 36
7 Andruw Jones ATL CF 29 89.3% 42.3 41 51 29 6.5 342 158
8 Carlos Delgado NYM 1B 34 86.4% 35.3 38 33 32 3.6 407 93
9 Albert Pujols* STL 1B 26 84.7% 45.8 49 41 46 8.1 250 250
10 Adam Dunn CIN LF 26 58.8% 41.0 40 40 46 8.0 198 302
11 Vladimir Guerrero LAA RF 31 57.4% 33.7 33 32 39 5.2 338 162
12 David Ortiz* BOS DH 30 53.6% 49.5 54 47 41 5.6 231 269
13 Paul Konerko CHW 1B 30 35.8% 37.7 35 40 41 5.8 245 255
14 Troy Glaus TOR 3B 29 35.6% 34.3 38 37 18 6.1 257 243
15 Mark Teixeira TEX 1B 26 35.4% 37.2 33 43 38 8.3 140 360
16 Ryan Howard PHI 1B 26 33.6% 43.5 58 22 2 8.0 82 418
17 Aramis Ramirez CHC 3B 28 33.6% 35.3 38 31 36 7.2 196 304
18 Alfonso Soriano WAS LF 30 27.6% 39.7 46 36 28 5.7 208 292
19 Miguel Cabrera FLA 3B 23 25.1% 29.5 26 33 33 10.1 104 396
20 Lance Berkman HOU 1B 30 24.5% 35.5 45 24 30 5.8 225 275
21 Carlos Lee MIL/TEX LF 30 23.6% 34.3 37 32 31 6.0 221 279
22 Richie Sexson SEA 1B 31 20.7% 31.5 34 39 9 5.1 273 227
23 Carlos Beltran NYM CF 29 20.3% 32.2 41 16 38 6.5 203 297
24 Gary Sheffield* NYY RF 37 17.8% 20.3 6 34 36 1.5 455 45
25 Adrian Beltre SEA 3B 27 16.5% 26.8 25 19 48 7.7 191 309
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