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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2000 1999 1998 Yrs Career Needed
1 Mark McGwire* STL 1B 36 100.0% 49.3 32 65 70 1.9 554 0
2 Barry Bonds* SFG LF 35 99.6% 42.0 49 34 37 2.4 494 6
3 Ken Griffey* CIN CF 30 95.9% 45.3 40 48 56 5.6 438 62
4 Sammy Sosa* CHC RF 31 94.1% 57.0 50 63 66 5.0 386 114
5 Juan Gonzalez DET RF 30 77.4% 31.5 22 39 45 5.6 362 138
6 Alex Rodriguez* SEA SS 24 70.6% 41.5 41 42 42 9.0 189 311
7 Jose Canseco TBD/NYY DH 35 67.9% 26.5 15 34 46 2.4 446 54
8 Manny Ramirez* CLE RF 28 61.5% 41.2 38 44 45 7.1 236 264
9 Jeff Bagwell HOU 1B 32 57.7% 43.2 47 42 34 4.7 310 190
10 Rafael Palmeiro* TEX 1B 35 57.5% 42.3 39 47 43 2.5 400 100
11 Vladimir Guerrero MON RF 25 51.9% 42.3 44 42 38 8.8 136 364
12 Albert Belle BAL RF 33 49.2% 32.0 23 37 49 3.7 381 119
13 Frank Thomas* CHW DH 32 48.0% 32.3 43 15 29 4.7 344 156
14 Carlos Delgado TOR 1B 28 46.3% 41.5 41 44 38 7.2 190 310
15 Chipper Jones ATL 3B 28 38.1% 38.7 36 45 34 7.1 189 311
16 Andruw Jones ATL CF 23 33.6% 31.8 36 26 31 10.1 116 384
17 Mike Piazza NYM C 31 33.3% 37.7 38 40 32 4.9 278 222
18 Gary Sheffield* LAD LF 31 33.1% 36.5 43 34 22 5.0 279 221
19 Troy Glaus ANA 3B 23 30.5% 35.3 47 29 1 9.7 77 423
20 Mo Vaughn ANA 1B 32 29.4% 35.7 36 33 40 4.5 299 201
21 Jim Thome* CLE 1B 29 28.7% 34.5 37 33 30 6.1 233 267
22 Todd Helton COL 1B 26 23.9% 36.8 42 35 25 7.9 107 393
23 Dean Palmer DET 3B 31 20.9% 32.8 29 38 34 5.1 264 236
24 Richard Hidalgo HOU CF 25 18.7% 33.0 44 15 7 9.0 68 432
25 Tony Batista TOR 3B 26 18.2% 33.8 41 31 18 8.1 100 400
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