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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1997 1996 1995 Yrs Career Needed
1 Greg Maddux* ATL SP 31 30.3% 17.7 19 15 19 5.3 184 116
2 Andy Pettitte NYY SP 25 14.9% 18.0 18 21 12 9.0 51 249
3 John Smoltz ATL SP 30 10.6% 17.5 15 24 12 5.9 129 171
4 Mike Mussina BAL SP 28 9.8% 17.0 15 19 19 6.9 105 195
5 Alex Fernandez FLA SP 27 6.4% 15.8 17 16 12 7.3 96 204
6 Pedro Martinez MON SP 25 5.4% 15.2 17 13 14 8.6 65 235
7 Roger Clemens* TOR SP 34 5.3% 15.8 21 10 10 3.1 213 87
8 Brad Radke MIN SP 24 5.2% 15.5 20 11 11 9.2 42 258
9 Tom Glavine* ATL SP 31 2.3% 14.7 14 15 16 5.2 153 147
10 Denny Neagle ATL SP 28 0.1% 17.5 20 16 13 6.7 65 235
11 Dennis Martinez SEA SP 43 0.0% 5.5 1 9 12 1.5 241 59
12 Dennis Eckersley STL RP 42 0.0% 1.2 1 0 4 1.5 193 107
13 Jimmy Key BAL SP 36 0.0% 12.2 16 12 1 2.3 180 120
14 Orel Hershiser CLE SP 38 0.0% 14.7 14 15 16 1.5 179 121
15 Dwight Gooden NYY SP 32 0.0% 8.2 9 11 4.4 177 123
16 Mark Langston ANA SP 36 0.0% 5.5 2 6 15 1.9 174 126
17 Fernando Valenzuela SDP/STL SP 36 0.0% 6.7 2 13 8 2.0 173 127
18 Danny Darwin CHW/SFG SP 41 0.0% 6.3 5 10 3 1.5 163 137
19 Doug Drabek CHW SP 34 0.0% 10.0 12 7 10 3.0 149 151
20 David Cone NYY SP 34 0.0% 11.3 12 7 18 3.3 148 152
21 Chuck Finley ANA SP 34 0.0% 14.0 13 15 15 3.2 142 158
22 Kevin Gross ANA SP 36 0.0% 6.2 2 11 9 2.4 142 158
23 Bret Saberhagen BOS SP 33 0.0% 1.2 0 7 4.1 141 159
24 Tom Candiotti LAD SP 39 0.0% 9.2 10 9 7 1.5 136 164
25 Mark Gubicza ANA SP 34 0.0% 3.3 0 4 12 3.1 132 168
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