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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1997 1996 1995 Yrs Career Needed
51 Ron Gant STL LF 32 0.0% 23.3 17 30 29 4.6 223 277
52 Ellis Burks COL CF 32 0.0% 31.7 32 40 14 4.3 209 291
53 Pete Incaviglia BAL/NYY DH 33 0.0% 8.5 5 18 4.1 206 294
54 Paul O'Neill NYY RF 34 0.0% 20.5 21 19 22 3.4 199 301
55 Greg Vaughn SDP LF 31 0.0% 25.5 18 41 17 4.8 197 303
56 David Justice CLE LF 31 0.0% 24.8 33 6 24 5.3 193 307
57 Dante Bichette COL LF 33 0.0% 30.0 26 31 40 3.8 183 317
58 Wally Joyner SDP 1B 35 0.0% 11.2 13 8 12 3.0 179 321
59 Ken Caminiti SDP 3B 34 0.0% 30.7 26 40 26 3.5 167 333
60 Benito Santiago TOR C 32 0.0% 18.3 13 30 11 4.6 163 337
61 Juan Samuel TOR DH 36 0.0% 6.2 3 8 12 2.1 160 340
62 Tim Raines NYY LF 37 0.0% 7.0 4 9 12 1.5 159 341
63 Devon White FLA CF 34 0.0% 10.3 6 17 10 3.3 154 346
64 Robin Ventura CHW 3B 29 0.0% 18.7 6 34 26 6.0 150 350
65 Travis Fryman DET 3B 28 0.0% 20.8 22 22 15 7.0 149 351
66 Edgar Martinez SEA DH 34 0.0% 27.5 28 26 29 3.3 145 355
67 Terry Steinbach MIN C 35 0.0% 20.2 12 35 15 2.8 144 356
68 Julio Franco CLE/MIL DH 38 0.0% 8.2 7 14 1.5 141 359
69 Tony Phillips CHW/ANA RF 38 0.0% 12.5 8 12 27 1.5 141 359
70 Brady Anderson BAL CF 33 0.0% 28.3 18 50 16 3.9 140 360
71 Todd Zeile LAD 3B 31 0.0% 26.2 31 25 14 4.9 140 360
72 Barry Larkin CIN SS 33 0.0% 15.5 4 33 15 4.1 139 361
73 Paul Sorrento SEA 1B 31 0.0% 27.3 31 23 25 5.0 138 362
74 Darren Daulton PHI/FLA RF 35 0.0% 10.5 14 0 9 2.7 137 363
75 Terry Pendleton CIN 3B 36 0.0% 6.5 1 11 14 1.8 137 363
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