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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1997 1996 1995 Yrs Career Needed
1 Eddie Murray* ANA/LAD DH 41 100.0% 12.3 3 22 21 1.5 504 0
2 Mark McGwire* OAK/STL 1B 33 93.7% 52.8 58 52 39 3.8 387 113
3 Ken Griffey* SEA CF 27 87.5% 47.2 56 49 17 7.4 294 206
4 Barry Bonds* SFG LF 32 82.9% 39.5 40 42 33 4.2 374 126
5 Juan Gonzalez TEX RF 27 74.6% 41.2 42 47 27 7.4 256 244
6 Frank Thomas* CHW 1B 29 51.0% 37.5 35 40 40 6.5 257 243
7 Albert Belle CHW LF 30 44.7% 39.3 30 48 50 5.5 272 228
8 Sammy Sosa* CHC RF 28 36.9% 37.3 36 40 36 6.8 207 293
9 Jim Thome* CLE 1B 26 29.2% 36.8 40 38 25 7.9 133 367
10 Mo Vaughn BOS 1B 29 28.3% 38.7 35 44 39 6.3 190 310
11 Mike Piazza LAD C 28 25.4% 37.3 40 36 32 6.7 168 332
12 Jeff Bagwell HOU 1B 29 23.9% 35.3 43 31 21 6.5 187 313
13 Rafael Palmeiro* BAL 1B 32 23.0% 38.5 38 39 39 4.3 271 229
14 Jay Buhner SEA RF 32 21.5% 41.3 40 44 40 4.3 253 247
15 Jose Canseco OAK DH 32 20.0% 24.8 23 28 24 4.2 351 149
16 Larry Walker COL RF 30 19.7% 36.8 49 18 36 5.7 202 298
17 Manny Ramirez* CLE RF 25 16.7% 29.2 26 33 31 8.9 109 391
18 Tino Martinez NYY 1B 29 14.8% 35.5 44 25 31 6.3 157 343
19 Matt Williams CLE 3B 31 12.0% 27.2 32 22 23 5.0 279 221
20 Tim Salmon ANA RF 28 12.0% 32.2 33 30 34 6.7 153 347
21 Vinny Castilla COL 3B 29 11.7% 38.7 40 40 32 6.0 124 376
22 Alex Rodriguez* SEA SS 21 10.5% 24.3 23 36 5 10.8 64 436
23 Todd Hundley NYM C 28 8.7% 31.2 30 41 15 7.1 121 379
24 Fred McGriff ATL 1B 33 8.6% 24.8 22 28 27 3.8 339 161
25 Gary Sheffield* FLA RF 28 8.0% 27.2 21 42 16 6.8 180 320
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