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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1988 1987 1986 Yrs Career Needed
1 Steve Carlton* MIN RP 43 100.0% 3.5 0 6 9 1.5 329 0
2 Don Sutton* LAD SP 43 100.0% 7.7 3 11 15 1.5 324 0
3 Tommy John NYY SP 45 53.6% 9.7 9 13 5 1.5 286 14
4 Dwight Gooden NYM SP 23 29.1% 16.8 18 15 17 9.8 91 209
5 Roger Clemens* BOS SP 25 24.9% 19.7 18 20 24 8.5 78 222
6 Frank Viola MIN SP 28 23.4% 20.3 24 17 16 7.1 104 196
7 Mark Gubicza KCR SP 25 9.9% 16.3 20 13 12 8.5 69 231
8 Nolan Ryan* HOU SP 41 9.3% 10.7 12 8 12 1.5 273 27
9 Danny Jackson CIN SP 26 8.3% 17.3 23 9 11 8.1 60 240
10 Bret Saberhagen KCR SP 24 8.1% 14.2 14 18 7 9.5 69 231
11 Jack Morris DET SP 33 7.0% 17.0 15 18 21 4.1 177 123
12 Orel Hershiser LAD SP 29 4.1% 19.2 23 16 14 6.1 83 217
13 Mike Witt CAL SP 27 3.6% 14.8 13 16 18 7.2 100 200
14 Greg Maddux* CHC SP 22 2.6% 13.5 18 6 2 10.7 26 274
15 Mark Langston SEA SP 27 0.1% 15.8 15 19 12 7.3 70 230
16 Bert Blyleven MIN SP 37 0.0% 12.8 10 15 17 1.7 254 46
17 Joe Niekro MIN RP 43 0.0% 4.3 1 7 9 1.5 221 79
18 Jerry Reuss CHW SP 39 0.0% 9.8 13 4 2 1.5 211 89
19 Rick Reuschel SFG SP 39 0.0% 15.3 19 13 9 1.5 194 106
20 Doyle Alexander DET SP 37 0.0% 13.5 14 14 11 1.5 188 112
21 Frank Tanana DET SP 34 0.0% 14.0 14 15 12 3.0 188 112
22 Ron Guidry NYY SP 37 0.0% 4.2 2 5 9 1.5 170 130
23 John Candelaria NYY SP 34 0.0% 11.5 13 10 10 3.2 164 136
24 Bob Forsch STL/HOU SP 38 0.0% 11.0 10 11 14 1.5 164 136
25 Charlie Hough TEX SP 40 0.0% 16.3 15 18 17 1.5 164 136
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