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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1988 1987 1986 Yrs Career Needed
1 Mike Schmidt* PHI 3B 38 100.0% 23.8 12 35 37 1.5 542 0
2 Darryl Strawberry NYM RF 26 46.8% 37.0 39 39 27 8.2 186 314
3 Jose Canseco OAK RF 23 40.9% 36.8 42 31 33 9.6 111 389
4 Dale Murphy ATL RF 32 37.6% 31.5 24 44 29 4.6 334 166
5 Eddie Murray* BAL 1B 32 23.7% 26.8 28 30 17 4.6 333 167
6 Mark McGwire* OAK 1B 24 22.2% 32.8 32 49 3 9.1 84 416
7 George Bell TOR LF 28 16.1% 32.8 24 47 31 6.8 163 337
8 Eric Davis CIN CF 26 13.5% 29.8 26 37 27 8.3 108 392
9 Kent Hrbek MIN 1B 28 13.1% 28.7 25 34 29 7.1 176 324
10 Will Clark SFG 1B 24 12.1% 28.0 29 35 11 9.4 75 425
11 Tom Brunansky MIN/STL RF 27 10.7% 26.0 23 32 23 7.3 188 312
12 Danny Tartabull KCR RF 25 9.5% 28.5 26 34 25 8.6 88 412
13 Ruben Sierra TEX RF 22 8.1% 24.2 23 30 16 10.4 69 431
14 Cory Snyder CLE RF 25 7.9% 28.0 26 33 24 8.6 83 417
15 Glenn Davis HOU 1B 27 7.2% 29.2 30 27 31 7.6 110 390
16 Cal Ripken BAL SS 27 6.7% 24.7 23 27 25 7.3 183 317
17 Andre Dawson CHC RF 33 6.7% 31.7 24 49 20 3.6 298 202
18 Pete Incaviglia TEX LF 24 6.1% 25.0 22 27 30 9.5 79 421
19 Gary Gaetti MIN 3B 29 4.6% 30.0 28 31 34 6.1 166 334
20 Joe Carter CLE CF 28 2.9% 29.0 27 32 29 7.0 116 384
21 Fred McGriff TOR 1B 24 2.6% 25.5 34 20 0 9.2 54 446
22 Jesse Barfield TOR RF 28 2.1% 25.0 18 28 40 6.8 174 326
23 Don Mattingly NYY 1B 27 1.7% 24.2 18 30 31 7.7 141 359
24 Barry Bonds* PIT LF 23 1.0% 23.0 24 25 16 9.6 65 435
25 Darrell Evans DET 1B 41 0.0% 27.2 22 34 29 1.5 403 97
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