Choose Metric:

Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1984 1983 1982 Yrs Career Needed
1 Steve Carlton* PHI SP 39 100.0% 15.3 13 15 23 1.5 313 0
2 Tom Seaver* CHW SP 39 91.7% 11.3 15 9 5 1.5 288 12
3 Phil Niekro* NYY SP 45 85.9% 14.5 16 11 17 1.5 284 16
4 Don Sutton* MIL SP 39 43.8% 12.5 14 8 17 1.5 280 20
5 Dan Petry DET SP 25 19.3% 17.8 18 19 15 8.6 78 222
6 Jack Morris DET SP 29 14.2% 19.0 19 20 17 6.5 107 193
7 Richard Dotson CHW SP 25 11.3% 16.2 14 22 11 8.7 70 230
8 Dave Stieb TOR SP 26 9.0% 16.5 16 17 17 7.8 81 219
9 Fernando Valenzuela LAD SP 23 8.1% 14.2 12 15 19 9.8 61 239
10 Rick Sutcliffe CLE/CHC SP 28 7.0% 18.0 20 17 14 7.2 73 227
11 Dwight Gooden NYM SP 19 5.1% 12.8 17 12.2 17 283
12 Bert Blyleven CLE SP 33 5.1% 14.3 19 7 2 4.1 195 105
13 Mario Soto CIN SP 27 5.0% 17.0 18 17 14 7.2 77 223
14 Storm Davis BAL SP 22 0.2% 12.7 14 13 8 10.5 35 265
15 Jim Palmer BAL SP 38 0.0% 4.2 0 5 15 1.5 268 32
16 Tommy John CAL SP 41 0.0% 9.5 7 11 14 1.5 255 45
17 Nolan Ryan* HOU SP 37 0.0% 13.3 12 14 16 1.6 231 69
18 Jerry Koosman PHI SP 41 0.0% 12.5 14 11 11 1.5 216 84
19 Joe Niekro HOU SP 39 0.0% 15.8 16 15 17 1.5 193 107
20 Mike Torrez NYM/OAK SP 37 0.0% 5.3 1 10 9 1.5 185 115
21 Jerry Reuss LAD SP 35 0.0% 9.5 5 12 18 3.0 178 122
22 Paul Splittorff KCR RP 37 0.0% 6.5 1 13 10 1.5 166 134
23 Steve Rogers MON SP 34 0.0% 11.8 6 17 19 3.2 156 144
24 Burt Hooton LAD RP 34 0.0% 5.2 3 9 4 3.4 146 154
25 Ron Reed CHW RP 41 0.0% 3.8 0 9 5 1.5 146 154
Page: 1 , 2 , 3 ... 38