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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1982 1981 1980 Yrs Career Needed
1 Gaylord Perry* SEA SP 43 100.0% 9.3 10 8 10 1.5 307 0
2 Steve Carlton* PHI SP 37 97.7% 19.8 23 13 24 1.5 285 15
3 Fergie Jenkins CHC SP 39 22.7% 10.7 14 5 12 1.5 278 22
4 Jim Palmer BAL SP 36 16.7% 12.5 15 7 16 2.0 263 37
5 Fernando Valenzuela LAD SP 21 8.9% 14.3 19 13 2 11.0 34 266
6 Don Sutton* HOU/MIL SP 37 6.4% 14.3 17 11 13 1.7 258 42
7 Jack Morris DET SP 27 2.7% 15.8 17 14 16 7.7 68 232
8 Jim Kaat STL RP 43 1.5% 5.8 5 6 8 1.5 283 17
9 Dave Stieb TOR SP 24 0.8% 14.2 17 11 12 9.0 48 252
10 Tom Seaver* CIN SP 37 0.0% 8.8 5 14 10 1.5 264 36
11 Phil Niekro* ATL SP 43 0.0% 13.3 17 7 15 1.5 257 43
12 Tommy John NYY/CAL SP 39 0.0% 13.7 14 9 22 1.5 237 63
13 Luis Tiant CAL SP 41 0.0% 3.0 2 2 8 1.5 229 71
14 Nolan Ryan* HOU SP 35 0.0% 13.5 16 11 11 2.8 205 95
15 Vida Blue KCR SP 32 0.0% 11.5 13 8 14 4.2 191 109
16 Jerry Koosman CHW SP 39 0.0% 9.5 11 4 16 1.5 191 109
17 Rick Wise SDP RP 36 0.0% 2.3 0 4 6 1.9 188 112
18 Mike Torrez BOS SP 35 0.0% 9.3 9 10 9 2.5 174 126
19 Bert Blyleven CLE SP 31 0.0% 6.0 2 11 8 5.3 169 131
20 Joe Niekro HOU SP 37 0.0% 14.8 17 9 20 1.5 162 138
21 Jerry Reuss LAD SP 33 0.0% 15.3 18 10 18 4.2 161 139
22 Paul Splittorff KCR SP 35 0.0% 9.0 10 5 14 2.6 152 148
23 Rudy May NYY RP 37 0.0% 7.5 6 6 15 1.5 151 149
24 Stan Bahnsen CAL/PHI RP 37 0.0% 1.8 0 2 7 1.5 146 154
25 Woodie Fryman MON RP 42 0.0% 7.3 9 5 7 1.5 141 159
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