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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1982 1981 1980 Yrs Career Needed
1 Ed Nunez SEA SP 19 0.0% 0.0 12.5
2 Storm Davis BAL SP 20 0.0% 0.0 11.7
3 Orlando Mercado SEA C 20 0.0% 0.8 1 11.6 1 499
4 Scott Garrelts SFG RP 20 0.0% 0.0 0 11.6 0 500
5 Rafael Belliard PIT SS 20 0.0% 0.0 0 11.6 0 500
6 Don Mattingly NYY LF 21 0.0% 0.0 0 11.3 0 500
7 John Bohnet CLE SP 21 0.0% 0.0 11.1
8 Joe Lansford SDP 1B 21 0.0% 0.0 0 11.1 0 500
9 Tom O'Malley SFG 3B 21 0.0% 1.5 2 11.1 2 498
10 David Green STL CF 21 0.0% 1.5 2 0 11.1 2 498
11 Gene Nelson SEA SP 21 0.0% 0.0 11.1
12 Howard Johnson DET 3B 21 0.0% 3.0 4 11.0 4 496
13 Mark Eichhorn TOR SP 21 0.0% 0.0 11.0
14 Jeff Ransom SFG C 21 0.0% 0.0 0 0 11.0 0 500
15 Fernando Valenzuela LAD SP 21 0.0% 0.8 1 0 0 11.0 1 499
16 Lee Tunnell PIT SP 21 0.0% 0.0 0 11.0 0 500
17 Jay Baller PHI SP 21 0.0% 0.0 0 11.0 0 500
18 Mel Hall CHC CF 21 0.0% 0.3 0 1 10.9 1 499
19 Candy Maldonado LAD LF 21 0.0% 0.0 0 0 10.9 0 500
20 Rusty Tillman NYM RF 21 0.0% 0.0 0 10.9 0 500
21 Mark Ryal KCR LF 21 0.0% 0.0 0 10.9 0 500
22 Cal Ripken BAL SS 21 0.0% 21.0 28 0 10.9 28 472
23 Tom Brunansky MIN RF 21 0.0% 15.0 20 3 10.9 23 477
24 Edwin Rodriguez NYY 2B 21 0.0% 0.0 0 10.9 0 500
25 Mike Witt CAL SP 21 0.0% 0.0 10.8
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