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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1982 1981 1980 Yrs Career Needed
1 Don Aase CAL RP 27 0.0% 0.0 7.3
2 Glenn Adams TOR DH 34 0.0% 2.2 1 2 6 3.2 34 466
3 Ricky Adams CAL SS 23 0.0% 0.0 0 9.9 0 500
4 Juan Agosto CHW RP 24 0.0% 0.0 9.4
5 Luis Aguayo PHI 2B 23 0.0% 2.3 3 1 1 10.0 5 495
6 Willie Aikens KCR 1B 27 0.0% 17.5 17 17 20 7.4 75 425
7 Doyle Alexander NYY SP 31 0.0% 0.0 0 0 4.9 0 500
8 Neil Allen NYM RP 24 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 9.3 0 500
9 Gary Allenson BOS C 27 0.0% 4.7 6 5 0 7.6 14 486
10 Bill Almon CHW SS 29 0.0% 3.3 4 4 0 6.2 12 488
11 Porfi Altamirano PHI RP 30 0.0% 0.0 0 5.9 0 500
12 Jose Alvarez ATL RP 26 0.0% 0.0 0 0 8.3 0 500
13 Larry Andersen SEA RP 29 0.0% 0.0 6.5
14 Bud Anderson CLE SP 26 0.0% 0.0 8.3
15 Joaquin Andujar STL SP 29 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 6.3 3 497
16 Luis Aponte BOS RP 29 0.0% 0.0 6.6
17 Tony Armas OAK RF 28 0.0% 27.2 28 22 35 6.6 111 389
18 Mike Armstrong KCR RP 28 0.0% 0.0 0 0 7.0 0 500
19 Fernando Arroyo MIN/OAK RP 30 0.0% 0.0 5.8
20 Alan Ashby HOU C 30 0.0% 9.0 12 4 3 5.4 42 458
21 Jerry Augustine MIL RP 29 0.0% 0.0 6.0
22 Benny Ayala BAL LF 31 0.0% 5.7 6 3 10 5.2 28 472
23 Wally Backman NYM 2B 22 0.0% 2.3 3 0 0 10.3 3 497
24 Stan Bahnsen CAL/PHI RP 37 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 1.5 1 499
25 Howard Bailey DET RP 24 0.0% 0.0 9.0
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