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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1982 1981 1980 Yrs Career Needed
1 Mike Schmidt* PHI 3B 32 53.1% 35.8 35 31 48 4.3 349 151
2 Gorman Thomas MIL CF 31 4.9% 32.8 39 21 38 5.1 197 303
3 Reggie Jackson* CAL RF 36 96.6% 31.3 39 15 41 2.3 464 36
4 Dave Kingman NYM 1B 33 15.5% 28.8 37 22 18 3.9 329 171
5 Eddie Murray* BAL 1B 26 20.1% 28.7 32 22 32 8.2 165 335
6 Ben Oglivie MIL LF 33 0.0% 28.5 34 14 41 4.0 195 305
7 Dale Murphy ATL CF 26 11.5% 27.8 36 13 33 8.2 128 372
8 Dave Winfield NYY LF 30 2.1% 27.8 37 13 20 5.6 204 296
9 Tony Armas OAK RF 28 0.0% 27.2 28 22 35 6.6 111 389
10 Bob Horner ATL 3B 24 17.2% 26.8 32 15 35 9.1 138 362
11 Dwight Evans BOS RF 30 0.0% 26.3 32 22 18 5.6 182 318
12 Gary Carter MON C 28 2.9% 24.7 29 16 29 7.1 171 329
13 Cecil Cooper MIL 1B 32 0.0% 24.2 32 12 25 4.5 166 334
14 Pedro Guerrero LAD RF 26 0.0% 24.0 32 12 7 8.4 53 447
15 Lance Parrish DET C 26 0.5% 24.0 32 10 24 8.4 102 398
16 Jason Thompson PIT 1B 27 1.0% 24.0 31 15 21 7.2 161 339
17 Andre Thornton CLE DH 32 0.0% 24.0 32 6 4.3 164 336
18 Jack Clark SFG RF 26 0.0% 22.8 27 17 22 8.0 132 368
19 Doug DeCinces CAL 3B 31 0.0% 22.5 30 13 16 4.9 137 363
20 Andre Dawson MON CF 27 0.0% 22.3 23 24 17 7.2 133 367
21 Robin Yount MIL SS 26 0.0% 21.8 29 10 23 7.9 96 404
22 Jim Rice BOS LF 29 2.8% 21.7 24 17 24 6.4 237 263
23 Ron Cey LAD 3B 34 0.0% 21.0 24 13 28 3.4 228 272
24 Brian Downing CAL LF 31 0.0% 21.0 28 9 2 5.0 84 416
25 Cal Ripken BAL SS 21 0.0% 21.0 28 0 10.9 28 472
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