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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1982 1981 1980 Yrs Career Needed
1 Reggie Jackson* CAL RF 36 96.6% 31.3 39 15 41 2.3 464 36
2 Mike Schmidt* PHI 3B 32 53.1% 35.8 35 31 48 4.3 349 151
3 Eddie Murray* BAL 1B 26 20.1% 28.7 32 22 32 8.2 165 335
4 Bob Horner ATL 3B 24 17.2% 26.8 32 15 35 9.1 138 362
5 Dave Kingman NYM 1B 33 15.5% 28.8 37 22 18 3.9 329 171
6 Dale Murphy ATL CF 26 11.5% 27.8 36 13 33 8.2 128 372
7 Gorman Thomas MIL CF 31 4.9% 32.8 39 21 38 5.1 197 303
8 Gary Carter MON C 28 2.9% 24.7 29 16 29 7.1 171 329
9 Jim Rice BOS LF 29 2.8% 21.7 24 17 24 6.4 237 263
10 Dave Winfield NYY LF 30 2.1% 27.8 37 13 20 5.6 204 296
11 Jason Thompson PIT 1B 27 1.0% 24.0 31 15 21 7.2 161 339
12 Lance Parrish DET C 26 0.5% 24.0 32 10 24 8.4 102 398
13 Willie Stargell PIT 1B 42 0.0% 3.3 3 0 11 1.5 475 25
14 Carl Yastrzemski BOS DH 42 0.0% 12.8 16 7 15 1.5 442 58
15 Johnny Bench CIN 3B 34 0.0% 13.2 13 8 24 3.3 377 123
16 Tony Perez BOS DH 40 0.0% 10.2 6 9 25 1.5 363 137
17 Lee May KCR 1B 39 0.0% 2.7 3 0 7 1.5 354 146
18 Reggie Smith SFG 1B 37 0.0% 13.5 18 1 15 1.7 314 186
19 Graig Nettles NYY 3B 37 0.0% 16.7 18 15 16 1.5 313 187
20 Rusty Staub NYM RF 38 0.0% 4.7 3 5 9 1.5 287 213
21 Greg Luzinski CHW DH 31 0.0% 19.2 18 21 19 5.0 262 238
22 George Foster NYM LF 33 0.0% 18.0 13 22 25 3.9 261 239
23 John Mayberry TOR/NYY 1B 33 0.0% 15.7 10 17 30 4.0 255 245
24 Bobby Murcer NYY DH 36 0.0% 7.7 7 6 13 2.3 251 249
25 Joe Morgan SFG 2B 38 0.0% 11.5 14 8 11 1.5 246 254
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