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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1979 1978 1977 Yrs Career Needed
1 Gaylord Perry* SDP SP 40 60.7% 15.5 12 21 15 1.5 279 21
2 Tom Seaver* CIN SP 34 33.6% 16.8 16 16 21 3.2 235 65
3 Steve Carlton* PHI SP 34 29.6% 18.2 18 16 23 3.3 225 75
4 Jim Palmer BAL SP 33 27.2% 15.3 10 21 20 3.8 225 75
5 Dennis Eckersley BOS SP 24 21.8% 17.5 17 20 14 9.2 77 223
6 Vida Blue SFG SP 29 14.4% 15.3 14 18 14 6.0 156 144
7 Mike Flanagan BAL SP 27 13.3% 20.3 23 19 15 7.5 60 240
8 Fergie Jenkins TEX SP 36 11.2% 15.7 16 18 10 2.1 247 53
9 Bert Blyleven PIT SP 28 10.4% 13.0 12 14 14 7.1 148 152
10 Dennis Leonard KCR SP 28 8.0% 17.3 14 21 20 7.1 87 213
11 J. R. Richard HOU SP 29 6.8% 18.0 18 18 18 6.4 97 203
12 Ron Guidry NYY SP 28 5.6% 20.0 18 25 16 6.7 59 241
13 Don Sutton* LAD SP 34 5.5% 13.3 12 15 14 3.5 217 83
14 Lary Sorensen MIL SP 23 5.0% 14.7 15 18 7 9.8 40 260
15 Rick Reuschel CHC SP 30 4.2% 17.0 18 14 20 5.9 114 186
16 John Candelaria PIT SP 25 3.7% 14.3 14 12 20 8.6 70 230
17 Dennis Martinez BAL SP 25 3.3% 15.2 15 16 14 8.9 46 254
18 Bob Stanley BOS SP 24 0.6% 14.3 16 15 8 9.2 39 261
19 Jim Kaat PHI/NYY RP 40 0.0% 5.2 3 8 6 1.5 264 36
20 Catfish Hunter NYY SP 33 0.0% 6.5 2 12 9 4.1 224 76
21 Phil Niekro* ATL SP 40 0.0% 19.5 21 19 16 1.5 218 82
22 Mickey Lolich SDP RP 38 0.0% 0.7 0 2 1.5 217 83
23 Luis Tiant NYY SP 38 0.0% 12.8 13 13 12 1.5 217 83
24 Tommy John NYY SP 36 0.0% 19.5 21 17 20 2.3 192 108
25 Rick Wise CLE SP 33 0.0% 12.3 15 9 11 3.7 178 122
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