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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1969 1968 1967 Yrs Career Needed
1 Denny McLain DET SP 25 69.7% 25.2 24 31 17 8.8 114 186
2 Juan Marichal SFG SP 31 48.3% 21.5 21 26 14 5.0 191 109
3 Tom Seaver* NYM SP 24 27.9% 20.5 25 16 16 9.2 57 243
4 Fergie Jenkins CHC SP 26 21.6% 20.5 21 20 20 8.1 69 231
5 Mel Stottlemyre NYY SP 27 21.3% 19.5 20 21 15 7.4 97 203
6 Dave McNally BAL SP 26 20.5% 18.5 20 22 7 8.0 90 210
7 Larry Dierker HOU SP 22 13.3% 15.0 20 12 6 10.3 55 245
8 Dave Boswell MIN SP 24 12.0% 15.7 20 10 14 9.3 64 236
9 Sam McDowell CLE SP 26 10.8% 16.2 18 15 13 7.9 89 211
10 Mickey Lolich DET SP 28 9.4% 17.5 19 17 14 6.7 102 198
11 Bill Singer LAD SP 25 6.9% 16.3 20 13 12 8.9 45 255
12 Bob Gibson STL SP 33 5.9% 19.5 20 22 13 3.8 167 133
13 Nelson Briles STL SP 25 5.8% 16.2 15 19 14 8.5 55 245
14 Steve Carlton* STL SP 24 5.7% 15.2 17 13 14 9.3 47 253
15 Claude Osteen LAD SP 29 4.9% 16.8 20 12 17 6.1 114 186
16 Jim Maloney CIN SP 29 4.6% 13.8 12 16 15 6.6 134 166
17 Ken Holtzman CHC SP 23 3.2% 13.7 17 11 9 9.8 48 252
18 Don Sutton* LAD SP 24 3.1% 14.0 17 11 11 9.5 51 249
19 Jim Merritt CIN SP 25 1.7% 14.7 17 12 13 8.7 54 246
20 Catfish Hunter OAK SP 23 1.3% 12.5 12 13 13 10.1 55 245
21 Ray Culp BOS SP 27 1.0% 15.2 17 16 8 7.3 84 216
22 Jim Kaat MIN SP 30 0.9% 14.3 14 14 16 5.6 142 158
23 Don Wilson HOU SP 24 0.5% 14.0 16 13 10 9.4 40 260
24 Jim Bunning PIT/LAD SP 37 0.0% 10.7 13 4 17 1.5 209 91
25 Don Drysdale LAD SP 32 0.0% 9.3 5 14 13 4.2 209 91
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