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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1969 1968 1967 Yrs Career Needed
1 Willie Mays* SFG CF 38 100.0% 17.8 13 23 22 1.5 600 0
2 Hank Aaron* ATL RF 35 100.0% 38.2 44 29 39 2.8 554 0
3 Ernie Banks* CHC 1B 38 99.6% 26.0 23 32 23 1.5 497 3
4 Harmon Killebrew* MIN 3B 33 95.7% 37.5 49 17 44 4.2 446 54
5 Frank Robinson* BAL RF 33 94.3% 26.0 32 15 30 3.7 450 50
6 Willie McCovey* SFG 1B 31 58.5% 39.7 45 36 31 5.1 313 187
7 Frank Howard WAS LF 32 40.7% 44.7 48 44 36 4.3 290 210
8 Reggie Jackson* OAK RF 23 34.4% 35.3 47 29 1 10.1 77 423
9 Ron Santo CHC 3B 29 23.3% 28.3 29 26 31 6.4 253 247
10 Dick Allen PHI 1B 27 22.7% 30.8 32 33 23 7.6 177 323
11 Carl Yastrzemski BOS LF 29 21.5% 35.0 40 23 44 6.1 202 298
12 Boog Powell BAL 1B 27 18.4% 28.0 37 22 13 7.3 202 298
13 Jimmy Wynn HOU CF 27 17.2% 31.3 33 26 37 7.6 145 355
14 Willie Horton DET LF 26 14.8% 29.2 28 36 19 8.0 141 359
15 Rico Petrocelli BOS SS 26 12.9% 30.0 40 12 17 8.4 100 400
16 Ken Harrelson BOS/CLE RF 27 5.9% 28.7 30 35 12 7.3 125 375
17 Tony Perez CIN 3B 27 5.2% 28.8 37 18 26 7.7 97 403
18 Lee May CIN 1B 26 5.1% 28.5 38 22 12 8.2 74 426
19 Billy Williams CHC LF 31 3.9% 25.2 21 30 28 5.4 249 251
20 Bobby Bonds SFG RF 23 2.4% 24.0 32 9 10.0 41 459
21 Orlando Cepeda ATL 1B 31 2.1% 20.5 22 16 25 4.9 306 194
22 Al Kaline DET RF 34 0.0% 18.0 21 10 25 3.3 335 165
23 Ken Boyer LAD 1B 38 0.0% 3.2 0 6 7 1.5 282 218
24 Norm Cash DET 1B 34 0.0% 23.0 22 25 22 3.2 282 218
25 Bob Allison MIN LF 34 0.0% 15.3 8 22 24 3.0 255 245
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