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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1963 1962 1961 Yrs Career Needed
1 Warren Spahn* MIL SP 42 100.0% 21.0 23 18 21 1.5 350 0
2 Early Wynn* CLE SP 43 100.0% 4.2 1 7 8 1.5 300 0
3 Don Drysdale LAD SP 26 38.6% 20.0 19 25 13 7.8 123 177
4 Juan Marichal SFG SP 25 24.5% 20.7 25 18 13 8.6 62 238
5 Sandy Koufax LAD SP 27 23.1% 20.2 25 14 18 7.5 93 207
6 Whitey Ford NYY SP 34 18.9% 21.8 24 17 25 3.2 199 101
7 Jim Maloney CIN SP 23 17.4% 17.3 23 9 6 10.2 40 260
8 Ralph Terry NYY SP 27 16.8% 18.8 17 23 16 7.5 88 212
9 Camilo Pascual MIN SP 29 16.6% 19.7 21 20 15 6.3 113 187
10 Dick Ellsworth CHC SP 23 15.7% 16.5 22 9 10 10.0 48 252
11 Milt Pappas BAL SP 24 11.6% 14.2 16 12 13 9.5 81 219
12 Bill Monbouquette BOS SP 26 10.1% 17.3 20 15 14 7.9 73 227
13 Jim O'Toole CIN SP 26 9.7% 17.0 17 16 19 8.1 69 231
14 Steve Barber BAL SP 25 7.9% 16.0 20 9 18 8.8 57 243
15 Bob Friend PIT SP 32 7.5% 16.8 17 18 14 4.4 170 130
16 Jim Bouton NYY SP 24 4.5% 15.8 21 7 9.4 28 272
17 Robin Roberts BAL SP 36 0.0% 10.5 14 10 1 1.9 258 42
18 Billy Pierce SFG SP 36 0.0% 8.5 3 16 10 2.3 208 92
19 Lew Burdette MIL/STL SP 36 0.0% 10.8 9 10 18 2.0 182 118
20 Curt Simmons STL SP 34 0.0% 12.3 15 10 9 3.5 156 144
21 Bob Buhl CHC SP 34 0.0% 11.0 11 12 9 3.1 132 168
22 Johnny Podres LAD SP 30 0.0% 15.0 14 15 18 5.6 129 171
23 Harvey Haddix PIT RP 37 0.0% 6.2 3 9 10 1.5 128 172
24 Frank Lary DET SP 33 0.0% 6.5 4 2 23 4.1 123 177
25 Vern Law PIT SP 33 0.0% 5.8 4 10 3 4.0 119 181
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