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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1961 1960 1959 Yrs Career Needed
1 Warren Spahn* MIL SP 40 100.0% 21.0 21 21 21 1.5 309 0
2 Early Wynn* CHW SP 41 98.0% 12.0 8 13 22 1.5 292 8
3 Milt Pappas BAL SP 22 10.7% 14.0 13 15 15 10.7 53 247
4 Whitey Ford NYY SP 32 9.2% 19.2 25 12 16 4.4 158 142
5 Don Drysdale LAD SP 24 8.6% 14.3 13 15 17 9.0 79 221
6 Mike McCormick SFG SP 22 6.8% 13.5 13 15 12 10.3 54 246
7 Frank Lary DET SP 31 5.6% 19.3 23 15 17 5.3 117 183
8 Johnny Podres LAD SP 28 4.0% 16.0 18 14 14 6.7 100 200
9 Joey Jay CIN SP 25 2.3% 15.8 21 9 6 8.5 45 255
10 Jim O'Toole CIN SP 24 0.6% 14.3 19 12 5 9.3 36 264
11 Chuck Estrada BAL SP 23 0.4% 13.5 15 18 10.0 33 267
12 Robin Roberts PHI SP 34 0.0% 7.0 1 12 15 3.1 234 66
13 Billy Pierce CHW SP 34 0.0% 12.0 10 14 14 3.5 189 111
14 Lew Burdette MIL SP 34 0.0% 18.8 18 19 21 3.2 163 137
15 Mike Garcia WAS RP 37 0.0% 0.5 0 0 3 1.5 142 158
16 Bob Friend PIT SP 30 0.0% 14.3 14 18 8 5.6 135 165
17 Gerry Staley 3 Tms RP 40 0.0% 6.7 2 13 8 1.5 134 166
18 Curt Simmons STL SP 32 0.0% 6.8 9 7 0 4.7 131 169
19 Ned Garver LAA RP 35 0.0% 3.0 0 4 10 2.7 129 171
20 Johnny Antonelli CLE/MIL RP 31 0.0% 5.7 1 6 19 5.3 126 174
21 Harvey Haddix PIT SP 35 0.0% 10.7 10 11 12 2.5 116 184
22 Bob Buhl MIL SP 32 0.0% 12.3 9 16 15 4.3 109 191
23 Chuck Stobbs MIN RP 31 0.0% 5.2 2 12 1 4.8 107 193
24 Vern Law PIT SP 31 0.0% 11.2 3 20 18 5.2 105 195
25 Bobby Shantz PIT RP 35 0.0% 5.8 6 5 7 2.5 105 195
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